IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 7:45 PM EDT071
FXUS63 KIWX 232345
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
745 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An active weather period will continue through Thursday with
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Severe weather
is not expected at this time.
- High temperatures will range from 70 to around 80 degrees,
with lows in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Convection continues to slowly whither this evening with the
loss of daytime heating and E/SE movement into drier and more
stable air. Still, isolated pockets of brief heavy rain can be
expected along/south of US-24 for the next few hours. Made some
cuts to PoP's for the overnight hours and into Wednesday. Latest
hi-res guidance (supported by recent satellite and radar trends)
suggests the vort max and associated rain moving into the OH
Valley will remain just south/southeast of our area with only a
glancing shot of steady rain for our far SE and eastern counties
late tonight into Wed. Sporadic showers are expected further NW
through tomorrow as minor shortwaves continue to pinwheel around
Michigan upper low but these will likely remain more isolated
given better moisture, instability, and forcing is shunted S/SE.
Finally, fog is possible again tonight given widespread rain/
moist surface. However, solid deck of low-midlevel clouds will
stifle radiational cooling and for now, fog looks to remain
patchy and not dense. Will monitor closely through the overnight
though.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A line of showers and thunderstorms has been slowly sagging
southeast ahead of a stationary front that is draped across
Lower Michigan southwestward into northern Illinois. This
activity will continue to progress across northern Indiana this
afternoon and evening and eventually into northwest Ohio
tonight. There is decent instability of around 1500 J/kg, but
shear is weak, so severe weather is not expected. However, small
hail will be possible in some of the more robust storms.
An upper low over the northern Great Lakes will then start to
drop south tonight and interact with a stronger shortwave moving
up from the southwest into the Ohio Valley. This will be a focus
for heavier rain on Wednesday, mainly southeast of US 24. The
shortwave will move east of the area during the afternoon, but
the upper trough axis will still be over the region, allowing
northerly low-level flow to usher in cooler air, and highs will
struggle to reach 70 degrees. The low will continue to impact
the region on Thursday with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms.
Dry conditions will return Friday through the middle of next
week as large scale troughing shifts east and high pressure
builds back into the middle of the country. Mild temperatures
can then be expected over the weekend with highs in the mid to
upper 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Another cluster of showers will move through KFWA over the next
1-2 hours but lightning activity continues to wane with the loss
of better instability. Any showers overnight will likely remain
isolated but widespread stratus is expected with ceilings
around 1 kft. Fog is also possible but confidence in the
duration and impact is low at this time. Return to VFR expected
by early Wed afternoon. Showers will remain possible (especially
at KFWA) late tonight and into Wed. Thunder is also possible
but confidence in timing and coverage is too low to mention in
the TAF at this time range.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...AGD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 7:45 PM EDT---------------
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