MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 6:57 AM CDT ...New Aviation...461
FXUS64 KMOB 231157
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
657 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2025
A subtle shortwave trough transits the area once again this
afternoon, perhaps allowing for one or two storms to develop over
the region today. Otherwise, most areas stay dry today with
afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's. Lows
tonight fall into the upper 60's and lower 70's.
Our primary attention turns to upper troughing across the central
U.S. that will gradually work its way eastward Wednesday through
Friday. The trough will likely maintain a positive tilt putting
the forecast area underneath broad upper difluence Wednesday night
into Thursday and gradual height falls. An initial round of
showers and storms can be expected for the western half of the
area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with best coverage
later in the evening into overnight hours Wednesday night over
interior portions of southeastern Mississippi. Adequate
instability will likely be in place with CAM guidance coming into
range depicting much of the forecast area maintaining 1,000 to
2,000j/kg of MLCAPE along with around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer
shear. If forcing is adequate enough Wednesday night, a low end
threat for strong to severe thunderstorms may exist for areas west
of the I-65 corridor. Wednesday should be another hot day prior
to increasing cloud cover moving in with afternoon highs topping
out in the lower to middle 90's. Wednesday night temperatures
will be in the upper 60's to lower 70's, middle 70's nearer the
coast.
The next round of showers and storms will likely come through the
region Thursday as forcing becomes somewhat stronger and the right
entrance region of the jet begins to have an influence on the
forecast area. Expect scattered to numerous showers and storms
during the day Thursday, with once again a low end threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms. The available longer ranged
experimental CAMs depict adequate instability to be in place with
around 1,000 to 1,500j/kg of MLCAPE, which combined with around 30
knots of deep layer shear and presence of forcing should allow for
a couple strong to severe storms to develop. If coverage of
showers and storms is widespread, however, afternoon heating and
likewise available CAPE for storms could be tempered which would
limit the threat for the area. For now, it's worth continuing to
watch as we move forward in time. The upper trough and attendant
cold front will slowly work its way through the area as we head
into Friday, keeping isolated to scattered coverage of showers and
storms mainly for the eastern half of the area. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday will be cooler given the cloud and rain
coverage, with highs generally in the lower to middle 80's, with a
few spots touching the upper 80's. Lows Thursday night will fall
to the middle and upper 60's over the interior with upper 60's
nearer the coast. Friday night will be much cooler in the wake of
the cold front with lows in the lower to middle 60's, perhaps even
some upper 50's over the interior.
As we head into the weekend, we return to dry weather and
generally cooler temperatures relative to what we've seen the past
week. Highs stay in the middle to upper 80's and overnight lows
fall into the lower to middle 60's. A low risk of rip currents
remains in place for our Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches
outside of a brief uptick to a Moderate risk for Florida Panhandle
beaches Thursday. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Patchy ground fog this morning is leading to localized reduced
visibilities to MVFR and patchy IFR. VFR conditions should return
over the next couple of hours and persist throughout the day with
a light southerly wind developing. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2025
A light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow prevails
today, becoming southerly Wednesday and westerly Thursday. Light to
occasionally moderate offshore flow becomes established Friday and
into the weekend in the wake of a cold front. No other impacts are
anticipated other than higher winds and seas near storms. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 91 71 92 73 87 68 86 63 / 0 0 20 30 80 60 30 10
Pensacola 89 73 90 76 88 72 85 68 / 0 0 10 20 70 70 50 10
Destin 89 75 89 76 87 73 84 70 / 0 0 10 10 60 70 60 20
Evergreen 96 67 94 70 88 67 87 62 / 0 0 10 30 80 60 30 10
Waynesboro 93 69 93 69 82 65 84 60 / 0 0 30 50 80 30 10 0
Camden 94 69 93 70 84 66 82 60 / 0 0 10 40 80 40 20 10
Crestview 94 67 93 70 89 68 85 63 / 0 0 10 10 70 70 50 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 23, 6:57 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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