The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 21, 16:21z for portions of IWX986
WUUS01 KWNS 211622
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
VALID TIME 211630Z - 221200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 44589624 45189415 44719352 44119339 43669365 43099611
43199648 43779669 44589624
0.02 32969855 33129895 33489917 33819899 34249694 34059644
33729637 33009742 32969855
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 41659430 41549657 42149900 43059876 44399700 45239413
44999280 44189218 42499328 41659430
0.05 37579563 38199627 38819641 39539612 39939519 40199278
39849093 39329019 38588998 38079059 37319190 37149276
37179399 37579563
0.05 31099845 31239975 31560104 32650123 33920115 34430070
34859948 35799651 35669572 34959510 34089492 32619611
31929690 31099845
0.15 32999975 33539972 34079893 34519747 34669676 34649614
34399599 34029611 33719640 33009741 32619808 32399913
32519956 32999975
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 42928028 40048151 38448274 37038412 36608457 36628606
36788685 37348708 38078727 38458778 38368845 38068955
37279110 33779488 32619611 31929690 31099845 31239975
31560104 32650123 33920115 34430070 35829652 36049635
37299609 38809646 39549615 39959520 40618878 41628716
42778618 42788416 42178261
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 32989975 33539972 34079893 34519747 34669675 34649614
34399598 34019612 33719640 33009741 32619808 32399913
32519956 32989975
MRGL 43059876 44399700 45239413 44999280 44189218 42499328
41659430 41549657 42149900 43059876
MRGL 42928028 40048151 38448274 37038412 36608457 36628606
36788685 37328707 38078727 38458778 38368845 38068955
37279110 33749492 32619611 31929690 31099845 31239975
31560104 32650123 33920115 34430070 35829652 36049635
37299609 38809646 39549616 39969521 40618878 41648714
42788617 42788419 42178261
TSTM 44437783 43137777 39897988 38208076 37038125 34898269
32728471 31378530 29908531 29238538 99999999 27068299
26518181 26688082 26938062 29658088 30028057 99999999
27369990 29759928 30209976 30200037 29960089 29050124
99999999 28620339 31060297 32220179 34150111 35779990
36019990 36530014 37020051 37690035 38119969 38709936
39319951 40160060 40790060 41430005 42359905 43069880
44679821 45769593 47029526 48459506 49579448 99999999
49109119 48109088 47568920 47448800 46408669 45908568
46848297 99999999 50101442 48341532 47591686 47621827
48601965 49932039 99999999 43231782 44521740 45801712
46501596 47771212 47901155 47770994 46200845 44220839
43500757 43480635 43270517 42590413 39910429 38940434
38430503 39111021 38431558 37381739 36141822 36211903
37052003 38222027 39071990 40382123 41552120 42361946
43231782 99999999 32281511 34161458 35001375 35361283
35351251 34871159 33710995 32590851 30760771
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
ABI 70 SSE CDS 25 WNW SPS 30 WNW ADM 30 NNE ADM 25 SW MLC 35 SSW MLC
15 ENE DUA 15 E GYI 15 N FTW 10 S MWL 30 E ABI 10 NE ABI 40 N ABI.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
ONL 10 NW BKX 20 S STC 20 ENE MSP 25 NE RST 45 W ALO 35 WNW DSM 25
SW TQE 25 NNE BUB 40 N ONL.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
ERI 20 ENE ZZV 10 WNW HTS LOZ 45 SW LOZ 30 SE BWG 25 WSW BWG 30 S
OWB 15 ENE EVV 30 NNW EVV 25 E MVN 25 NW MDH 50 NW POF 30 ENE PRX 45
NNE CRS 30 NE ACT 55 SSE BWD 45 ESE SJT 35 WNW SJT 35 NNE BGS 35 ESE
PVW 25 W CDS 20 ENE CQB 30 WSW TUL 35 N BVO 25 SSE MHK 40 NE MHK 20
NW STJ 10 NE BMI 15 NNW VPZ 25 S MKG 20 E LAN 30 SSE MTC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 N ROC ROC 15 N MGW
35 NE BKW 20 S BLF 25 W GSP 20 NE CSG 10 ENE DHN 20 NW AAF 40 SSW
AAF ...CONT... 35 SW SRQ FMY 45 W PBI 35 WNW PBI 35 NNE DAB 45 E SGJ
...CONT... 30 WSW LRD 30 NNW HDO 20 S JCT 40 WSW JCT 40 N DRT 30 SW
DRT ...CONT... 120 SW 6R6 10 NNW FST 15 W BGS 35 E PVW 50 NW CSM 60
NW CSM 60 SE LBL 25 E LBL 20 WSW DDC 30 NNE DDC 30 WSW RSL 20 ESE
HLC MCK 25 S LBF 20 W BBW 20 WSW ONL 40 N ONL 20 N HON 25 WSW AXN 30
ENE DTL 35 SSE RRT 60 NE RRT ...CONT... 90 NNE ELO 35 NW GNA 45 NW
CMX 30 NE CMX 45 ESE MQT 50 WNW PLN 70 ENE ANJ ...CONT... 125 N GPI
50 W GPI 30 E GEG 35 W GEG 10 NNW OMK 110 NNW OMK ...CONT... 45 N
REO 30 SE BKE 40 S LWS 30 NW P69 40 WNW GTF 30 NNW GTF 55 S HVR 30 N
BIL 25 NW WRL 40 SSE WRL 40 N CPR 35 NNE DGW 35 N TOR 35 ENE DEN 20
ENE COS 30 WNW PUB U28 70 SW ELY 50 SSW TPH 45 NW NID 55 N BFL 25 NW
FAT 50 SSW TVL 15 NNE TVL 55 ENE RBL 35 W AAT 50 ENE LKV 45 N REO
...CONT... 40 SW YUM 40 NNE BLH 20 SSE IGM 55 NNW PRC 45 SSW GCN 20
SSE FLG 40 S SOW 20 W SVC 105 S DMN.
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Sep 21, 16:21z for portions of IWX---------------
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