ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 1:56 PM EDT136
FXUS61 KILN 221756
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
156 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek,
with daily chances for rain lingering into next weekend as well, as
a wet pattern becomes established. Temperatures look to be cooler
with highs near or a little below normal through the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad southwest flow aloft with better jet dynamics coming into play
as a shortwave trough translates northeastward today across the Ohio
Valley. Airmass destabilizes with SBCAPE values of 1000-1250 J/KG
with the best instability across the south. In response to this s/w
a 30-35kt 8H jet offers moisture advection and PWATs trending well
above normal - approaching 1.70 inches by morning. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to increase thru the day.
Effective shear around 30 kts may support some organized multicells
with a few storms capable of strong to damaging wind gusts during
the afternoon into early evening. The best coverage of storms
With shortwave rotating thru the area expect widespread shower and
thunderstorms to continue overnight. The severe threat diminishes
thru the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures
bottom out between 60 and 65.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Positively tilted H5 trough remains stretched across much of the
central and eastern CONUS, which acts to continue overall unsettled
weather pattern.
There looks to be a general lull in pcpn coverage Tuesday morning
into early afternoon, with redevelopment likely during the afternoon
in the southwest flow regime in a humid airmass. Best coverage of
storms will be focused east of the I-71 corridor. Temperatures reach
highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
Showers and thunderstorms increase late Tuesday night with the
approach of the next shortwave. Lows in the lower and middle 60s
will be common.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A surface low and upper level vorticity max will be approaching the
Ohio Valley from the west on Wednesday. Showers and storms are
fairly likely ahead of the disturbance, but the exact placement and
coverage is a bit uncertain. Global models have been more broad with
the rain/storm coverage extending well north of the Ohio River by
Wednesday afternoon. However, this synoptic guidance is not lined up
well with the longer range mesoscale guidance that has started to
come in which has convection more limited to south of the Ohio
River. Another factor the impacts shower/storm coverage and location
will be the path of the low which also has some variance. The severe
threat remains fairly low since instability is limited. Excessive
rain is possible due to high rain rates, but antecedent dry
conditions should limit flood risks. Shower and rain chances remain
high into Wednesday night as the low moves through.
On Thursday, the low pulls northeast of the Ohio Valley. Drier air
slowly trickles in behind the low gradually leading to reductions in
rain chances through the end of the week and into the weekend.
Temperatures remain mild by late September chances through the
period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread the
TAF sites ahead of a shortwave embedded in the southwesterly mid
level flow. Some of the storms will have the potential to contain
gusty to damaging winds - especially across the southern TAF sites.
Ceilings will drop MVFR in the heaviest activity, with brief MVFR
visibilities also possible. Ceilings will drop to IFR acrs the area
after 06Z. Showers may linger across parts of the area overnight but
activity is expected to decrease thru the night.
Some MVFR visibilities in fog may accompany the IFR ceilings.
Ceilings will slowly lift to MVFR Tuesday morning.
Southwest winds around 10 kts this aftn will become a little more
southerly at 5 to 8 kts overnight and then southwesterly at 7 to 9
kts Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 1:56 PM EDT---------------
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