PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 17, 11:34 PM CDT959
FXUS63 KPAH 180434
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1134 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue through Friday with highs
in the low to mid 90s. Slightly cooler temperatures arrive
this weekend.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible from late Friday through the weekend. Amounts will
likely remain below 0.25" and some areas may stay dry.
- Early next week is trending wetter with prospects for rain
increasing in the Sunday night through Tuesday time period.
Higher uncertainty exists beyond that, but there is a
potential for an unsettled week with near daily rain chances.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen through the
weekend, and there remains a good amount of uncertainty on
whether we actually get enough rainfall next week to help
significantly.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Upper ridging maintains control of our weather through tomorrow
keeping us toasty with highs in the 90s. Meanwhile, troughing across
the Northern/Central Plains will migrate eastward into the Midwest
through Friday. The main energy with this system will then lift into
the Upper Midwest through the weekend. Thus, while the tail end of
the trough may result in some isolated to widely scattered showers
and storms in our cwa, amounts will likely be quite light (< 0.25")
with some areas remaining dry through Sunday. The first of this
activity arrives in southeast Missouri Friday and then further east
Friday night into Saturday.
There is a growing signal for higher rain chances early next week,
particularly Sunday night into Monday, possibly into Tuesday.
Ensembles are latching onto a second disturbance that shifts east
from the Plains that appears to result in higher QPF (potentially
0.50" or greater). Models differ on how to handle this system mid to
late next week though. A decent amount of guidance is suggesting a
cut-off upper level low forms somewhere across the central CONUS. If
this were to occur, then it would likely lead to several days of
showers and storms. GEFS continues to be driest, but even it
suggests 0.75" to 1" through next Friday. Meanwhile the ECMWF and
its ensemble are suggesting widespread 1-2", which would be welcome
relief from the ongoing severe drought.
Temperatures next week will be heavily dependent on cloud cover and
coverage of any rain. The drier solution would likely keep us in the
80s, while the wetter solution may keep highs in the 70s several
days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Moisture and thermal conditions still appear unfavorable for
widespread fog, but patchy ground fog near water sources will be
possible throughout the region through daybreak. Light winds and
VFR conditions are anticipated through the day Thursday and the
remainder of the new TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Thursday night
for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 17, 11:34 PM CDT---------------
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