MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 12:24 AM CDT ...New Aviation...774
FXUS64 KMOB 090524
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1224 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
An upper shortwave over the central plains will dive southeastward
tonight into Tuesday and reinforce the longwave trough over the
eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly shift eastward, with the
axis reaching the Eastern Seaboard late in the week as an upper
ridge builds to our west. A weak surface low pressure system
across the east-central Gulf will slowly shift westward and
dissipate through midweek, while a surface ridge builds across the
southeast states. These features will allow for winds to become
more easterly, helping to advect moisture back into the area
tonight into Tuesday. This should lead to a 20-30% chance of
showers and storms, mainly across the western Florida Panhandle
this evening, with most of the convection remaining offshore
through the remainder of the night in Tuesday. A 20-30% chance of
showers and storms will return Tuesday afternoon south of Highway
84. A deep dry northerly flow will follow midweek through the
weekend, keeping our area rain-free.
After two more nights with temperatures around to slightly above
normal, the return of the drier air mass will bring low temps back
to around to slightly below normal Wednesday night through the
weekend. We will see quite the opposite when it comes to high
temps, as we normally see with drier air masses, with highs around
to slightly below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, climbing to around
3 to 6 degrees above normal Thursday through the weekend. /22
Beach Forecast - The rip current risk increases to a MODERATE
tonight and HIGH Tuesday through midweek as the tighter pressure
gradient along the coast brings strong easterly winds. The rip
current probability guidance then trends toward a LOW risk
Thursday and Friday. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
VFR conditions expected over most of the forecast area through the
forecast. Local drops in conditions to low/mid MVFR levels due to
isolated rain showers developing near the coast are expected the
rest of tonight into Tuesday as a weakly organized surface low
develops over the northern Gulf. This convection is expected to
be a non-issue by 18z. Northeast to easterly winds around 10
knots expected through the forecast.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf late tonight
through Tuesday afternoon as a surface ridge building across the
southeast states brings a strong easterly flow. Seas will also
build to 4 to 7 feet. In addition to the Small Craft Advisory,
small craft operators should exercise caution over most bays and
sounds. A light to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow follows
for Wednesday and Thursday before decreasing and becoming variable
late in the week. /22
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through
Wednesday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CDT this morning through
Wednesday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ650-655-670-
675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 9, 12:24 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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