CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 7:34 PM EDT045
FXUS61 KCLE 142334
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over eastern Canada continues to extend into the
eastern Great Lakes. This feature will remain influential over the
region through mid-week it moves through the New England states and
off the Canadian Maritime provinces.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over eastern Ontario and western Quebec will continue
to persist southwest into the local area through Monday. This
feature in conjunction with a high amplitude ridge will allow
for dry weather to continue through Monday night. The main
concern through the period will be some increasing east to
northeast winds for Monday with a slightly stronger pressure
gradient over the region. Some residual moisture and prolonged
late-summer nights will allow for some patchy fog in typical
valley locations. High temperatures will be in the 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The forecast will remain status quo with high pressure to the
northeast and some return flow into the region. This will allow
for some weaker southerly winds with temperatures in the 80s.
Better moisture into the region will allow for some more potent
afternoon cumulus clouds to form, but dry weather remains
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quiet weather should continue for Thursday and Friday with some
upper level ridging remaining over the region and weak high
pressure over the central Appalachians. With the coastal low
pressure system finally leaving the Carolinas, a more optimal
setup will allow for temperatures and moisture to slightly creep
up and Thursday will be the warmest day of the week with mid-
to-upper 80s. For Friday, the moisture will translate to more
afternoon cloud cover and limit temperatures slightly to the mid
80s.
For the weekend, the forecast will continue to feature some
20-30% PoPs for rain as an upper trough and surface low pressure
system will attempt to approach the region from the west.
However, there remains very low confidence in the progression of
the late week pattern, as this upper trough will need to fully
erode the upper ridge that has promoted the quiet weather across
the region. If the ridge holds, more dry weather will just
continue, whereas if this next system arrives, then there will
be some rain showers, but unfortunately nothing drought-
breaking for the area. If this system moves through the region,
then highs will be cooler in the 70s. If it holds off, then more
80s will be expected.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR is largely expected through the TAF period although there may
be a brief period of non-VFR conditions in patchy fog in
Northwest Ohio, including KTOL, late tonight into early Monday
morning. Light east to northeast winds of 5 knots or less are
expected tonight, increasing to 7-10 knots Monday afternoon.
Slightly stronger winds of 10-12 knots with periodic gusts to 20
knots possible near Lake Erie, including KCLE/KERI.
Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected although patchy
MVFR visibilities are possible each morning between roughly
08-12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will maintain influence over Lake Erie through the
early part of the week, resulting in primarily east/northeast winds
through Tuesday. Winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots in response
to a tightening pressure gradient Monday afternoon into early
evening with the higher winds closer to 20 knots anticipated in
the central basin from roughly Vermilion OH to Willowick OH.
Waves will likely reach 2 to 4 feet for a few hours Monday
afternoon into Monday evening, which could necessitate a brief
Small Craft Advisory/Beach Hazards Statement especially if
winds/waves trend higher. Opted to hold off on headlines with
this update due to the marginal winds/waves, but headlines may
be issued in a future update.
Winds will gradually diminish Monday night with daily lake/land
breezes and winds 12 knots or less anticipated Tuesday through
Thursday. Winds/waves will likely increase as a cold front moves
south across the lake on Friday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 7:34 PM EDT---------------
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