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683 FXUS64 KMOB 231006AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Monday)Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024The eastern periphery of the large upper ridge over the southern half of the U.S. will weaken through tonight as an upper shortwave passing over the Great Lakes region digs southward over the eastern states. Prior to the arrival of the upper shortwave, large scale subsidence and lack of moisture will result in dry and hot weather conditions again today.Rain chances enter back into the forecast on Monday as a surface low pressure area associated with the shortwave moving eastward across New England on Monday sends a weak cold front southward into the Tennessee Valley and northern portions of Georgia and Alabama before becoming nearly stationary and slowly dissipates. While the front is not expected to enter into our area, a plume of increased moisture ahead of this boundary will gradually sink southward with deep layer moisture improving that will bring our precipitable water values as high 2 inches in the afternoon. This moisture combined with convergence along the sea-breeze and potential outflow boundaries will aid in the development of scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. A strong storm or two cannot be completely ruled out Monday afternoon, but we are not expecting any organized severe storms at this time.High temperatures today and Monday will reach the mid to upper 90s (3-8 degrees above normal) inland and low 90s at the coast. Heat indices across much of the area today will range from 100 to 105 degrees, and from 103 to 108 degrees on Monday. Lows will be very warm and humid and only lower into the mid 70s inland with upper 70s and low 80s along the coast, or 5-10 degrees above normal. A MODERATE risk of rip currents continues through the period. /22&&.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Tuesday night)Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024Upper level ridging remains centered over the Desert Southwest onTuesday with the local area lingering on the eastern periphery ofthis feature. Meanwhile, a large upper trough to our east moves out over the western Atlantic. This pattern places the local area in a light northwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday with southwesterlywinds prevailing at the surface. Guidance continues to indicate aplume of enhanced moisture that will be in place across most of the area Tuesday morning. It's possible that this moisture plume could get nudged further south and become confined to southern portions of the area during the day Tuesday as high pressure builds slightly over the Appalachians. While there's still some discrepancy with how far south this moisture gradients sags, guidance is suggesting that we could see some drier air move into northern and especially northeastern portions of the area on Tuesday. This drier air could help to limit rain chances in these areas, but for now have maintained scattered showers and storms across the area for Tuesday afternoon. Any showers and storms that develop on Tuesday are expected to follow a diurnal pattern with convection dissipating through the early evening hours.The bigger concern for Tuesday will be very hot temperatures ashighs climb into the middle and upper 90s in most locations.Tuesday is still looking like the best potential for seeing a HeatAdvisory as heat index values are currently forecast to reach toaround 105-100 degrees. However, we will continue to monitor forthis potential as drier air across portions of the area would have impacts on those heat index values. /14&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024Rain chances will be on the rise as we head into the middle ofthis week as a weak northwesterly flow prevails. Deep layermoisture will improve during this time as the surface ridging overthe Appalachians slides east and the upper ridging retreatsfurther west. A more potent shortwave trough is also expected to within the mean flow, with it slowly pivoting across the Southeastern US on Wednesday and Thursday. The lower heights and increasing moisture combined with another weak boundary that sags down into the Southeast will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday, with isolated to scattered PoPs persisting into the overnight hours. By Friday, theshortwave aloft exits to the east and very weak upper ridging attempts to build back into the region. This will reduce rain chances somewhat Friday and Saturday with much of the area seeing scattered showers and storms both days. It will still be rather warm and humid during the week with high temperature generally topping out in the lower and middle 90s. Heat index values will likely be just below Heat Advisory criteria during the middle to latter part of next week. /14&&.MARINE...Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024No hazardous impacts expected as a light southwesterly to westerly flow will occur throughout next week. /22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 95 76 96 76 96 76 94 74 / 10 0 40 10 30 10 50 40 Pensacola 93 78 94 79 95 80 93 77 / 10 10 40 10 40 20 60 40 Destin 90 80 91 80 93 80 91 79 / 10 10 40 10 40 20 50 40 Evergreen 97 73 96 73 98 73 95 72 / 10 10 40 10 40 10 60 40 Waynesboro 97 74 96 74 99 74 96 72 / 0 10 30 10 30 10 60 40 Camden 95 73 95 73 97 73 95 72 / 10 10 20 0 30 10 60 40 Crestview 98 73 97 74 99 74 96 72 / 10 0 40 10 40 10 60 30 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
