PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 6:17 AM CDT375
FXUS63 KPAH 051117
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
617 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The passage of a cold front will bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon through early
Saturday morning. The greatest rain chances will be along the
Kentucky and Tennessee borders.
- A few of the storms could today become strong to severe in
parts of western Kentucky, mainly between 6 PM and 12 AM CDT.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.
- Dry and pleasant weather is forecast this weekend, with a
warming trend beginning next week. Temperatures will warm to
5-10 degrees above normal by the middle to latter parts of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
An approaching cold front will bring renewed precipitation
chances today, mainly late this afternoon through the overnight
hours into early Saturday morning. The front will push south of
Interstate 64 early today, while locations along the KY/TN
border will stay in the warm sector. This will allow
temperatures here to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Cooler NW flow will keep locations further to the north much
cooler, only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Along the KY/TN border, robust destabilization combined with
increasing westerly mid-level flow in the late afternoon and
evening hours, will cause scattered thunderstorms to develop
across western KY, mainly along and south of a Fulton to
Madisonville to Owensboro line, where SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms. It appears damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch in diameter will be the
main threats. The risk of tornadoes appears to stay east of the
area over Middle TN, southern KY, and eastern KY.
Precipitation coverage will actually be greatest late tonight
through early Saturday morning as low- and mid-level level
frontogenesis peaks. Again, the greatest precipitation chances
will be along the KY/TN border, decreasing further to the north.
The latest QPF shows the greatest amounts of rain by Saturday
afternoon of 0.25-0.75" (and locally higher up to 1") occurring
over the MO Bootheel through western KY. Locations further north
and east will see lesser rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25".
Following the passage of the front Saturday morning and
afternoon, dry and pleasant weather is forecast this weekend.
High temperatures will be slightly below normal in the middle to
upper 70s and low temperatures in the middle 40s to around 50
degrees. H5 ridging will begin to increase over the region,
resulting a significant warming trend in temperatures through
much of next week along with continued dry conditions. In fact,
high temperatures will return to August-type levels during the
Wednesday to Friday period, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With
more prolonged dryness, drying fuels, and suppressed humidity
levels, fire weather concerns may become more significant by
the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A cold front will move through the region today, bringing
increasing cloud cover followed by scattered shower and
thunderstorm develop late this afternoon through the overnight
period. Cigs and vsbys should remain VFR, but brief MVFR
restrictions are possible under more intense activity (mainly
during the 00-12z Saturday period). Winds will shift to the N to
NW behind the frontal passage, around 5-10 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 6:17 AM CDT---------------
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