PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 7:15 PM CDT433
FXUS63 KPAH 050015
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
715 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A significant warmup Friday will precede the approach of
another cold front, followed by its Friday night passage.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, including
the chance for a few strong to potentially severe storms,
mainly Friday afternoon into early evening.
- Nice, cool, dry, below normal temperatures return for the
weekend with highs in the 70s for the weekend into early next
week. A return to summer-like temperatures beckons for the
latter half of next week, but that return should be a dry one
that is not too humid, as dew points only work back up into
the 50s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
We will warm back up tmrw ahead of an approaching cold front
that will bring back pleasantly cool and dry weather for the
weekend into early next week. The airmass the front will
encounter will be charged by late afternoon, and we should see
storms popping in the free convective environ by then, as temps
peak in the mid-upper 80s with dew points back up into the
mid-upper 60s. Focusing on the southern Pennyrile and esp our
far southeast counties, MUCAPE's approach 1K J/KG with lapse
rates in the 6-8C range max, and 30 to potentially 40 kts of
mean layer shear availability. This supports the marginal risk
just as the front enters the picture, but the window will be
short, mainly afternoon-early evening, and confined probably to
our KY counties in the south and east. This is not to discount
chances completely further north and west, but that's the best
chance area, with tapering chances from there in terms of storm
strength as well as overall pop. Hail/damaging winds-line
segment convection looks to be the main threat. Better strong to
severe chances are just east of our CWA, where a slight risk
svr has been posted.
Outside of the strong/svr risk, all of us should receive at
least some rainfall, with amounts generally less than 1/4"
across our northwest, but potentially up to about an inch in our
far southeast as pops spike up to categorical there with fropa
Friday night. This will be much welcomed rainfall for our still
D0/D1 CWA. The barreling of the mean long wave trof with
continued height falls here into Saturday may hang the front up
just a little upon departure, thus lingering pops in our south
and east into Saturday morning, before the cooler and drier air
displaces it entirely. A return to pleasant dry/cool 70s ensues
thereafter, continuing thru the remainder of the weekend and
even into early next week. We bounce back to summer-like 80s,
and maybe even push toward 90F, during the middle to latter part
of next week...but it looks like high pressure keeps us dry as
dew points, which fall into the 40s behind fropa, only make it
back to the 50s by then. Of note, the start week dew points in
the 40s will plummet RH values into the 20s minima for fire wx
planning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 715 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Except for some low potential for MVFR fog between 09z-13z, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. SCT050 cumulus
will develop after 14z, with increasing mid clouds from the
west late in the TAF period. Winds will be variable around 5kts
or less through 14z, gradually becoming northwest at 6-12kts
after 14z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 4, 7:15 PM CDT---------------
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