LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 1:38 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...253
FXUS63 KLMK 061738
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cloudy with scattered showers this morning. Clearing is expected
this afternoon and evening.
* Cooler and drier air returns to the region tonight. Lows tonight
and Monday morning may break record low temperatures.
* A very dry weather pattern is expected for next week with
moderating temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1027 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A surface cold front continues to push through the Southeast, now
running from central AL northeast across the Appalachians. Scattered
light showers are streaming across central KY this morning, with
precip now diminishing in southern IN. Deeper mid-level moisture
lingers (for now) beneath the right entrance region of an upper
level jet streak. The arrival of drier air this afternoon will shut
off the spotty rain from northwest to southeast.
There is little to no remaining MUCAPE, with 100+ J/kg analyzed
along and southeast of our CWA border with NWS Jackson. And based on
the latest HREF guidance, any lightning activity is likely to remain
off to our south. Decided to lower the thunder probs through the
rest of the day. Updated forecast products have been sent.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Earlier convection has continued to weaken and moved well into
eastern Kentucky. In the wake of convection, skies were generally
mostly cloudy with temperatures mainly in the lower 60s. We're
seeing a break in the precipitation right now. However, an upper
level wave out to the west of the Ohio Valley will continue to move
eastward this morning. Ahead of this upper wave, scattered showers
and a few storms have already begun to redevelop across western
Tennessee. Additional shower development across SE Missouri should
continue with these showers moving back into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky toward sunrise.
For today, mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers are expected
during the morning hours. As we move into the afternoon, drier air
will move into the region from the west/northwest allowing skies to
clear from west to east. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with
highs topping out in the upper 60s to around 70 in our eastern
sections. In areas west of the I-65 corridor, earlier clearing
should allow temps to recover into the lower-mid 70s in the
afternoon.
For tonight, clearing skies and continued cold advection should
result in temperatures falling off into the mid-upper 40s. Lexington
may approach and/or break record lows by Sunday morning. However,
temperatures at the other climate sites look to stay well above
current record lows.
For Sunday and Sunday night, upper level troughing will hold sway
across the region with high pressure continuing to build into the
region. Highs will warm into the 74-79 degree range in the
afternoon. With the high moving across the region Sunday night, a
good radiational cooling situation is likely to develop. Lows in
the valleys and the typical good radiational cooling spots will dip
into the lower 40s. It would not surprise me to see a few spots
maybe getting into the upper 30s. Record lows may be tied/broken
again mainly at Lexington and possibly Frankfort.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Moving into next week, the upper level pattern across the CONUS
looks to remain rather blocky with troughs centered in the western
and eastern US, with a ridge axis across the central Plains. The
upper level ridge across the Plains is expected to shift eastward
into the Ohio Valley as upper level troughing digs across the
western US and the eastern US trough axis pushes off the east coast.
In terms of sensible weather, mostly sunny days and mostly clear
nights are expected with virtually no chance of measurable rainfall
for the week.
Temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 70s on Monday with
overnight lows dipping back into the mid-upper 40s. By Tuesday, a
southerly flow will begin to redevelop across the region and
temperatures will gradually moderate through the week. Highs
Tuesday and Wednesday look to warm into the lower-middle 80s across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Wednesday afternoon highs
may reach the upper 80s across southern Kentucky. Overnight lows
will be in the lower 60s. Highs Thursday and Friday will generally
be in the mid-upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Mid-level clouds still blanket much of central KY in the wake of a
cold front now sinking well southeast of the area. The back edge of
the clouds is now approaching SDF, and drier air moving into the
region will allow these clouds to continue to clear from NW to SE.
Ceilings will briefly dip below 5 kft only for the first hour or two
of this forecast period at LEX and RGA before improving. Likewise,
light rain is ending at BWG and will diminish in the next 1-2 hours
at LEX and RGA.
W/NW winds will continue at 5-8 kts through sunset before
diminishing. Winds go light and variable overnight with high
pressure building in, and skies will stay mostly clear. Some fog
will be possible early Sunday, especially near RGA and surrounding
areas that see clouds clear the latest this evening. NW winds will
pick back up to 5-9 kts after 15Z Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Record Low Temperatures Possible...
Sun, Sept 7th Mon, Sept 8th Tues, Sept 9th
Rec (Yr) | FCST Rec (Yr) | FCST Rec (Yr) | FCST
SDF 46 (1988) | 52 46 (1956) | 50 44 (1883) | 53
LEX 47 (2017) | 47 45 (1956) | 45 45 (2024) | 49
BWG 43 (1988) | 52 47 (1956) | 49 44 (1958) | 53
FFT 43 (1988) | 47 42 (1988) | 44 43 (2024) | 48
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...EBW
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...EBW
CLIMATE...CSG/CG
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 6, 1:38 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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