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521 FXUS64 KLIX 271829AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Now through Thursday Night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025Dry northwesterly flow aloft continues over the region. We've beenwatching an H5 impulse that has helped develop cloudiness over the region this morning. This deck of clouds is slowly eroding and mixing out, but the coverage has kept our temperatures from climbing much into the 80s at the noon hour outside of Houma wherecoverage has been more scattered in nature. There were a few showers earlier around MCB/southwest MS, however, this activity has decreased. Cannot rule out a rogue shower or two with very subtle impulses still present within the flow upstream, however, much of the short term should remain dry with the best chances being west of I55 and southwest Mississippi during the day onThursday. (Frye)&&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025By Friday a cold front should move southward over our regionbefore stalling. A series of upper level shortwaves will ride down the northwesterly flow and interact with this feature, whichshould give us higher rain/storm chances going into the upcoming weekend. Low level moisture does increase a bit with PWATS at or above 2.0" Friday afternoon through the weekend. Because of this,WPC experimental ERO has a marginal through the weekend where thebest potential hydro concerns will be in the urban areas or poor drainage locations. The antecedent conditions are on the drier side, especially north of I10/12 so it may take a bit more for hydro concerns to develop outside of the more flood vulnerable locations.As for the front, models still disagree in terms of placementbeyond Saturday. GFS hangs up the front along the coast and the ECMWF drags the front all the way through the region and stalls itover the central Gulf. So, one solution is wet and one is dry. For now, we will keep POPs mid range and split the differenceSunday and Monday. Regardless, with rain/cloudiness or behind thefront, temperatures will likely be a bit cooler this weekend andinto early next week with most locations climbing only into the middle and upper 80s. By the end of the period the front should have finally cleared as a very strong northwest flow reestablishesover the area leading to much drier conditions and likely a skoshwarmer as well by next Tuesday. (Frye)&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025Cloudiness has lingered around through much of the morning, but CIGs are high enough to keep local terminals in the VFR range. Didrequire a TEMPO for SHRA earlier for MCB, but that activity is nolonger around. VFR conditions are anticipated through the night and into Thursday. Winds will also become light and variable through the period. (Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025Moderate easterly flow has developed across portions of thecoastal waters. Pressure gradient will begin to decrease as highpressure moves eastward across the TN/OH River Valleys thisafternoon and evening. Until then, Cautionary Headlines wereneeded for some of the local waters. Winds will eventually shiftto a more southerly direction out ahead of another cold front dueinto the region by late Friday. The front is forecast to stallsomewhere along the Gulf Coast or perhaps just offshore. With thefront, convection may be enhanced leading to more numerous showersand thunderstorms. Outside of convection, overall conditions willbe benign. That said, near showers and storms expect locally higher winds and seas. (Frye) &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 70 89 71 84 / 10 40 50 80 BTR 73 93 73 88 / 10 40 30 70 ASD 70 91 71 88 / 10 20 20 50 MSY 77 94 77 91 / 10 30 10 50 GPT 72 89 73 86 / 0 20 20 50 PQL 68 91 70 88 / 0 20 20 50 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
