LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 6:56 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...863
FXUS64 KLIX 252356
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
656 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
The region will remain under dry northwesterly flow aloft through
the period. At the surface, weak easterly or northeasterly flow
will continue across the CWFA. With slightly offshore flow and
still some elevated heights from ridging spread eastward from
Texas under the broader scale trough, temperatures will remain on
the warm side. Luckily, humidity values will be slightly lower,
which will keep our area from needing heat headlines. Convective
potential will remain very low, however, coastal Louisiana areas
south of I10 will have a nonzero chance of a shower or storm that
may develop within the diurnal cycle. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
The overall synoptic pattern going into the long range is about
the same as the short term. Dry northwesterly flow aloft will be
present on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge centered
over central Texas. As the surface a weak front will be pushing
through, however, with lackluster moisture quality, this should be
a dry frontal passage. Speaking of dry, much drier air will filter
into the region behind the front. Surface winds will transition to
a more easterly direction as high pressure builds into the region
from the north behind the front, which will help lessen the heat
potential. In fact, midweek max temps may only reach the upper 80s
for a large chunk of the CWFA. This sadly is brief and by Thursday
and Friday temperatures will again be climbing into the lower to
middle 90s respectively.
Going into the upcoming weekend a series of H5 impulses along with
another surface front are expected to move through the region.
Globals are picking up on the front and as such our rain chances
have increased going into the weekend. That said, there remains
to be some differences among the globals in terms of how far south
the front gets. ECM has it through the region with much lower
POPs, where the GFS is more bullish with POPs as it stalls the
front right over our region with again the series of impulses
helping generate showers and storms. Temperatures appear to be a
bit cooler regardless from increase POPs or from drying on the
backside of the front...so upper 80s for the weekend appears to be
a safe bet for most of the area. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
VFR this taf cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
A surface cold front will remain in close proximity to the area,
which will help develop nocturnal convection during the overnight
and morning hours. Winds on Tuesday and Wednesday may increase to
near cautionary headline thresholds as easterly flow slightly
strengthens. High pressure will try to build into the region later
this week, which will bring easterly winds back down below
10 knots. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and
around convection. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 68 91 67 / 0 0 10 0
BTR 96 72 95 71 / 0 0 10 0
ASD 93 69 92 68 / 0 0 10 0
MSY 96 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0
GPT 93 71 91 70 / 0 0 10 0
PQL 93 68 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 6:56 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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