JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 8:13 PM EDT534
FXUS63 KJKL 290013
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
813 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Pleasant fall-like weather continues through weekend featuring
mild, sunny days and cool nights.
- Aside from the chance of a few sprinkles for a few locations
into this evening and again on Friday, dry weather should
prevail through the weekend.
- Rain chances return for Labor Day though the middle of next
week but a widespread soaking rainfall is not expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 810 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
A few showers remain over the northern fringes of the forecast
area, but dry air aloft is likely preventing much rain from
reaching the surface. This activity will diminish over the next
hour or so. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and does not
need additional updates.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 307 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
A very comfortable late August afternoon is underway across the
Eastern Kentucky Coalfields and surrounding regions. After a
chilly start in the mid 40s to low 50s for most locations
(including a daily record low of 48F at the London-Corbin
Airport), thermometers have soared into the mid 70s to around 80
degrees. Dew points remain low, mainly in the 40s. While a shallow
cumulus field has developed, satellite and radar mosaics show a
more extensive area of cloud cover and light rain advancing toward
the I-64 corridor. A more comprehensive analysis of the upper
levels reveals this moisture is associated with weak warm air
advection (WAA) beneath a subtle 500hPa shortwave, which is
embedded within the large-scale upper-level trough lingering over
much of the Eastern CONUS. Well to our north, a weak surface low
of 1013mb is located north of Lake Ontario, with a cold front
trailing west-southwest across Lower Michigan and Northern
Illinois and then northwestward into the Dakotas.
The aforementioned shortwave will continue diving southeast into
the Central Appalachians this evening and its associated mid-level
moisture will primarily glance northeastern Kentucky before
diminishing. The low-levels will remain quite dry. As a
consequence, locations north of the Mountain Parkway can expect a
several-hour period of thicker mid-level cloud cover, virga, and a
few sprinkles later this afternoon into the evening. Gusty
breezes between 10 and 20 mph are possible with the leading edge
of any heavier virga or sprinkle activity. At most, a few
locations might pick up enough rain to settle the dust with that
being most favored over Fleming and adjacent counties. Further
south, there may be an uptick in cloud cover but no precipitation
is expected. The shortwave quickly moves east of the area late
this evening, leaving behind just patchy mid-level clouds, mainly
in the northeast. This should allow for fog to develop once again
in the favored sheltered river valleys. Looking ahead to Friday,
the aforementioned cold front will gradually sag into the
Commonwealth during the day and may linger over the area for most
of Friday night. Moisture will remain limited on Friday, but some
model soundings are favorable for a cumulus field of sufficient
depth ahead of the cold front to produce a few sprinkles around
peak diurnal heating.
In sensible terms, look for mostly sunny skies to persist through
sunset, except near/north of the Mountain Parkway where clouds
will thicken and yield a few sprinkles or a light rain shower for
some places. Temperatures will likely drop into the 60s at those
locations affected by sprinkles/light rain/virga. Skies turn clear
to partly cloudy tonight with temperatures falling back into the
upper 40s to mid 50s, except mid 40s in the coldest sheltered
hollows. On Friday, look for mostly sunny skies to yield to a
thickening cumulus field by late morning into the afternoon. A
brief sprinkle cannot be ruled out in a few places. It will again
be mild with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s with
the warmest southern valleys nearing 85F. On Friday night, look
for a north-south temperature gradient with generally mid 40s to
lower 50s north of the Mountain Parkway and lower to mid 50s
further south. Fog is likely to redevelop during the overnight
hours both tonight and Friday night, especially in the typically
favored sheltered river valleys along and east of the Escarpment.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
Upper level ridging will build into the Great Lakes Region on
Sunday, allowing for additional moisture to filter into eastern
Kentucky. A few showers may impact portions of southeast Kentucky
Sunday night, but expect rainfall amounts to be negligible.
The beginning of next week will feature a busy upper level pattern
as a shortwave trough develops over Missouri and Iowa. This
disturbance will bring increased rain chances to eastern Kentucky
through Tuesday. A secondary area of troughing will develop over
Ontario on Wednesday and eject a cold front into the Midwest.
Showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday into Thursday
with rainfall totals remaining under an inch.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
Nocturnal valley fog will continue to be an issue across eastern
Kentucky tonight. However, any vsby reductions will be outside of
terminals. Otherwise, VFR CIGs and light winds will prevail.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHLESSIGER
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...SCHLESSIGER
AVIATION...SCHLESSIGER
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 8:13 PM EDT---------------
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