ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 1:03 PM EDT313
FXUS61 KILN 251703
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
103 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A seasonably cool airmass will remain in place across the region
through much of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level low pressure system is situated over eastern Ontario
early this afternoon with a broad trough extending south from it
across the eastern CONUS. Some weak mid level energy rotating
through the trough will result in some lower end pops across our far
northern areas into this evening. Otherwise, with a cool airmass in
place, expect another night of below normal temperatures with lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some additional weak mid level energy will through the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday. This will again lead to the potential for isolated
shower development through the day, with the best chance for this
being across our northern areas. We will remain seasonably cool with
highs on Tuesday in the 70 to 75 degree range and lows Tuesday night
in the 45 to 50 degree range.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
On Wednesday morning, a large upper trough will be located over
Quebec and extending southward into the northeastern CONUS. The Ohio
Valley will remain on the southwestern periphery of the upper
trough, as an area of surface high pressure moves into the region
from the west. This surface high will be centered very close to the
ILN CWA on Wednesday evening, before moving east off the coast of
the Carolinas by Thursday.
With a cool and dry air mass in place, associated with the surface
high, the extended forecast period will begin with temperatures that
are quite a bit cooler than normal. Highs from Wednesday through
Saturday are expected to range from the lower 70s to upper 70s,
about 5-10 degrees below normal for late August. Temperatures will
begin to warm up going into next week, with values closer to normal
expected.
Models have continued to trend slightly sharper with a shortwave
moving around the base of the upper trough on Thursday. As a result,
there will be some chances for precipitation in the northern
sections of the ILN forecast area, particularly near peak diurnal
timing. Aside from this, any additional chances for rain appear
likely to hold off until next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Northwest winds around 10 knots today will
lighten a bit tonight as high pressure builds in. Should see a bit
more patchy river valley fog in prone areas (LUK), but we are not
expecting a significant or lengthy impact.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered to broken cu across the area this afternoon will decrease
as we head into this evening with skies becoming mostly clear. Some
river valley fog will be possible tonight so will allow for some
MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions at KLUK. Otherwise, expect scattered to
broken cu redevelopment as we head into the day on Tuesday with the
potential for an isolated shower Tuesday afternoon, primarily at the
northern TAF sites.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 1:03 PM EDT---------------
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