NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 19, 4:00 AM CDT607
WTNT41 KNHC 190838
TCDAT1
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Dropsonde observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation of the system is
gradually becoming better defined. However, the central convection
remains rather meager and the system's cloud pattern is still not
classifiable via the Dvorak technique. Therefore the disturbance
still does not meet the requirements of a tropical cyclone and will
continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone at this
time. Nonetheless, since the system appears to be on its way to
developing a well-defined center, it is expected to become a
tropical cyclone later today. This also suggested by simulated
satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models that depict
increasing and organized deep convection near the center as it
nears the coastline.
The system is turning westward and the current motion is around
285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from a
strong high over the eastern United States should force the
disturbance to move on a westward path with increasing forward
speed. The track model guidance and model consensus are in good
agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is
similar to the previous NHC track, albeit a bit faster.
The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on
non-elevated surface observations over the Gulf. Environmental
conditions, such as warm SSTs and low vertical shear, appear to
favor some intensification before landfall. However, the inner
circulation is likely to remain somewhat broad, limiting
strengthening. The official intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and in good agreement with the statistical-dynamical
Decay-SHIPS guidance.
Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.
Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.
2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of
Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of
Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.
3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through midweek.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 22.7N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1800Z 22.7N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/0600Z 22.7N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/1800Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 19, 4:00 AM CDT---------------
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