JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 3:43 PM EDT533
FXUS63 KJKL 221943
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
343 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will bring a potential for showers and
thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest probability in
southeast Kentucky.
- Noticeably cooler and less humid weather will arrive by Monday
and last through at least Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 343 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
Fog and low clouds were slow to break up again today, but the
process was faster than yesterday. This allowed for more heating,
which has managed to fuel some shower and thunderstorm development
near the VA border. Will look for the precip to die out with loss
of heating/instability this evening.
Pattern changes then begin, leading to significant change in the
long term. A significant upper low along the Manitoba/Ontario
borer will slowly move east tonight through Saturday night, with
an associated trough expanding/deepening over the eastern CONUS.
As minor geopotential height falls begin by Saturday morning for
our area, would not completely rule out isolated precip again by
dawn, but the probability looks to low for inclusion in the
forecast at this point. As heating/destabilization occur on
Saturday with more height falls, will expected more development of
convective precip. The deepest moisture will be present over our
southeast counties, which will probably allow for the easiest
development and greatest coverage there. Activity is expected to
decline on Saturday night, but possibly at a slower pace due to
support from the amplifying upper level trough.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2025
Conditions were wide ranging at the start of the period, with an
area of mainly MVFR and IFR ceilings extending east/west through
the middle of the forecast area and affecting KJKL and KPBX. To
the north and south, conditions were mostly VFR. More improvement
is forecast this afternoon, with the low clouds continuing to
lift and break up, allowing a return of mostly VFR conditions
area wide. However, the sun and heating which has occurred in some
locations is leading to shower/thunderstorm development near the
VA border, with associated localized sub=VFR conditions. The
precip will die out this evening.
Valley fog development is expected late tonight, growing in
breadth and depth and bringing localized IFR or worse conditions.
All TAF sites have a potential for impacts to varying extents.
The fog will dissipate on Saturday morning, with conditions
eventually reverting to VFR again area wide.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 22, 3:43 PM EDT---------------
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