ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 1:44 PM EDT010
FXUS61 KILN 171744
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
144 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid airmass will support isolated showers and storms at
times through Tuesday. A cold front dropping south through the region
Wednesday offers more widespread storm coverage. Above normal temperatures
are expected through midweek, with drier and slightly cooler conditions
for the second half of the workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level ridge remains centered to our west over the nations mid
section with northwesterly flow across ILN/s area. ILN/s FA remains
between systems with remnants of an MCS dropping sse thru southern
Indiana into a region of more favored instability and a shortwave
tracking thru the eastern Great Lakes.
Latest mesoanalysis shows a front over northern Ohio with CIN over
southern Ohio/northern KY. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible - especially across the north closer to the frontal
boundary initially and then into the south later in the day.
Any diurnally driven storms will dissipate quickly early this
evening due to the lack of strong forcing. Surface front slips
south thru the area overnight with low temperatures ranging from the
lower 60s north to near 70 south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge centered over the nations mid section begins to
build a little north into the lower Ohio Valley Monday. Slight drier
air looks to be in place in the wake of the front. Expect the area
to remain dry with abundant sunshine thru Monday.
Trend continues with data suggesting max heat indices in the
mid/upper 90s over the south staying below critical thresholds. High
temperatures to range from the lower and middle mid 80s in central
Ohio to around 90 degrees in the southwest.
Model solutions agree keeping convection to our northwest with only
some debris clouds spilling into the area Monday night. Low temperatures
range from the upper 50s far north-northeast to the mid/upper 60s
southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Relatively dry east to northeast flow will become southwesterly on
Tuesday, bringing a return to near 70 degree dewpoints. This will
occur as a cold front shifts southeast toward the Ohio River Valley
late in the day. Latest guidance times the front to arrive Tuesday
night. Will stay with a chance of showers and storms in the warm and
humid air mass ahead of the boundary from Tuesday afternoon through
the night.
Behind the front, weak high pressure will build across the Upper
Midwest through the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday through Friday.
Can't rule out a shower or storm Wednesday across northeast Kentucky
in the proximity of the remnant front... but otherwise expecting
mostly sunny and dry conditions with near-normal late August
temperatures.
The ridge-west-trough-east pattern will be reinforced this coming
weekend as another cold front pushes through the region. This will
likely usher in below normal temperatures to close the period on
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridge remains centered to our west over the nations mid
section with northwesterly flow across ILN/s area. The TAF/s remain
between systems with remnants of an MCS dropping sse thru southern
Indiana into a region of more favored instability and a shortwave
tracking thru the eastern Great Lakes.
Isolated shower and thunderstorm development will be possible this
aftn - especially across the north closer to the frontal boundary
initially and then into the south later in the day. Coverage of
storms will be limited.
Any diurnally driven storms will dissipate quickly early this
evening due to the lack of strong forcing. Surface front slips south
thru the area overnight with drier air working into the area on
northeast low level flow. Can not rule out some valley fog in the
south late tonight with the drier air arriving later. Will limit any
fog mention to MVFR vsby restriction at KLUK and KILN.
Fog improves quickly Monday with VFR conditions thru the remainder
of the day.
North winds at 5 to 7 kts become northeast around 5 kts overnight
and northeast at 5 to 10 kts Monday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 1:44 PM EDT---------------
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