BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 1:24 PM EDT887
FXUS61 KBOX 151724
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
124 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the region will bring lower humidity and
seasonable temperatures today and Saturday. The heat and humidity
briefly returns Sunday along with the risk for a few showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening as a cold front
crosses the region. This front will usher in cooler/below normal
temperatures with mainly dry weather for much of the next work week.
In addition...Erin which is expected to become a major Hurricane
this weekend across the Atlantic may bring dangerous rip currents
and high surf to some ocean exposed beaches next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages...
* Beautiful today with much lower humidity & seasonable temps
* Highs mainly in the 80s...but middle-upper 70s on immediate coast
Details...
Low clouds and fog patches mainly across parts of the
Cape/Islands should burn off this morning. Otherwise...high
pressure builds southward across Quebec and northern New England
today. This will result in a low level NE flow of much less
humidity than yesterday. Plenty of sunshine will result in high
temps mainly in the 80s...but onshore flow will hold highs in
the middle to upper 70s on portions of the immediate coast.
Regardless...a beautiful day with much lower humidity than
yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Mainly clear & pleasant tonight with lows between 55 and 65
* Partly sunny Sat & dry outside a brief interior spot shower
* Highs Sat mainly in the 80s...upper 70s/near 80 immediate coast
Details...
Tonight...
High pressure builds over the region tonight. This will result in
mainly clear skies...light/calm winds and a good night of
radiational cooling. Low temps should bottom out in the 50s across
the outlying locations...to the lower to middle 60s in the urban
centers. Perhaps some localized patchy ground fog develops late in
the typically prone low-lying locations.
Saturday...
High pressure slowly shifts east of the region on Sat.
Nonetheless...still expect a very nice day with partly to mostly
sunny skies and seasonably warm afternoon temps. There may be just
enough instability for an afternoon spot shower across the distant
interior...but generally a dry day is on tap for Sat. Highs Sat will
mainly be in the 80s...except upper 70s to near 80 on the immediate
coast with sea breezes. Humidity will be a bit higher than
today...but nothing too significant for mid August standards.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Hot & humid Sun with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s
* A few showers & t-storms Sun PM...otherwise mainly dry next week
* Cooler/less humid Mon-Thu with highs mainly 70s to near 80
* Erin may bring dangerous rip currents/high surf next week
Details...
Sunday...
Bermuda high pressure coupled with an approaching cold front will
bring a hot & humid day on Sunday. Southwest flow ahead of the front
should allow highs to reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s and it
will be humid too. That will result in some modest instability
developing on the order of 1000 to 1500+ J/KG of Cape. Convergence
along the cold front will likely result in the development of a few
showers & t-storms Sun PM. Effective shear is rather marginal on the
order of 20-30 knots and ML lapse rates are not impressive.
Therefore...we are not expecting a severe weather outbreak...but
modest low level lapse rates may result in an isolated/localized
severe weather risk depending on timing and mesoscale
influences.
Monday through Thursday...
Large high pressure will setup across eastern Canada/Quebec for much
of the next work week with a trough axis focused just to our east.
This will bring cooler/below normal temperatures to the region with
generally dry weather. High temps will mainly be in the 70s to near
80 with the coolest readings across the eastern MA coast with
onshore flow.
The other thing we will need to watch is Tropical Storm Erin which
is forecast to become a major Hurricane this weekend as it lifts
northwestward across the Atlantic. Fortunately...the upper trough
appears too far east and not amplified enough for Erin to
directly impact southern New England. It will eventually turn N
then NE and away from our region. However...Erin will likely
bring long period southeast swell resulting in the potential
for high surf/dangerous rip currents to some ocean exposed
beaches next week. Something will need to watch closely.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
Through Tonight...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions...but some low clouds may flirt with the
Cape and especially the Islands tonight. In addition...some
patchy localized ground fog may result in some lower vsbys in
those typically prone low-lying locations overnight. Winds
becoming calm/light tonight.
Saturday...High confidence.
VFR. S winds generally 10 kts or less with ESE sea breezes on
the immediate coastline.
KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.
Monday: VFR. Breezy.
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Saturday...High confidence.
High pressure builds southward from Quebec through tonight
before shifting east of the region Sat. This will result in NE
wind gusts of 15-20 knots across the waters today...but
winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory thresholds.
These winds will diminish tonight and become SE on Sat remaining
below small craft advisory criteria.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Scattered
rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.
Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McMinn/Mensch
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Mensch
AVIATION...McMinn/FT
MARINE...McMinn
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 1:24 PM EDT----------------
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