JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 5:13 AM EDT123
FXUS63 KJKL 170913
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
513 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will continue today and persist through
Tuesday.
- Expect isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, with lower rain chances tomorrow and Tuesday. Rain
chances will increase considerably beginning on Wednesday and
lasting through the remainder of the week and into next weekend.
- Temperatures will begin to ease off by the middle of this week
once rain chances return.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 513 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
Radiation fog and low stratus are showing up on some of the
eastern KY obs, but they haven't become as widespread as
previously expected. The latest surface analyses shows a surface
boundary having entered northwest Ohio, and this is the boundary
we expect to come through eastern KY late today. The current
forecast appears on track, so no changes are planned for now.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 126 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
Expect better rain and storm chances on Sunday, especially in
areas along and north of I-64, with PoPs trending less as we get
down to the KY/TN border. While an upper high is in the process
of building into eastern KY from the west, a surface boundary is
expected dip southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes and into
Ohio. Temperature-wise, afternoon high are likely to reach the
upper 80s to low 90s most areas, with heat index values maxing out
in the mid to upper 90s -- uncomfortable, but still short of heat
advisory criteria. Convectively, the RUC forecast sounding for
JKL valid at 18Z shows considerable instability with a PWAT of
1.64", which is near the 90th percentile climatologically at ILN
(the nearest upper air site). So any storms that do develop later
today will be capable of producing some high rainfall rates given
the deep moisture and instability. Rain and storm chances won't be
quite as high on Monday, but temperatures and heat indices will
be close to the values we experience today.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
Hot and humid conditions will last through Tuesday, then
temperatures will begin to ease off once rain chances return.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast on
Wednesday. High pressure aloft will retreat westward, allowing a
northwest flow aloft to develop over the region by the middle of
the week. At the surface, a trough of low pressure will develop
over eastern Kentucky on Wednesday and Wednesday night, thereby
providing some lift to what will still be a moist and unstable
environment. While severe storms appear unlikely for now, there is
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on the current day 5
outlook from the WPC, which covers Wednesday and Wednesday night.
While the 48-hour QPF totals from 12Z Wednesday until 12Z Friday
range from 0.1" to 0.5", locally heavy rainfall is possible with
any storms that do develop. Isolated to scattered convection
remains in the forecast for the remainder of this week and the
weekend, mainly during peak-heating hours.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2025
Overnight low vsby and low stratus are the immediate concerns with
the 06Z TAFs, especially at LOZ and SME, where LIFR/VLIFR
conditions are expected at times during the overnight period. Fog
should dissipate by 13Z most areas, maybe not until 14Z in the
densest spots. We do have low rain and storm chances in the
forecast for this afternoon, with the best chances across
northern portions of the JKL CWA. PoPs are too low most areas to
warrant mention in the TAFs, with the exception of SYM, where
we've included a PROB30 group for the afternoon period to account
for the possibility of TS/CB's.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 17, 5:13 AM EDT---------------
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