JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 2:08 AM EDT456
FXUS63 KJKL 160608
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
208 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will build over the weekend and last
through early next week.
- The next significant potential for showers and thunderstorms
arrives for the middle of next week, which will also knock down
temperatures a bit.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 152 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
Short-term grids have been published. Surface high pressure
continues to influence the weather across eastern Kentucky, so we
can expect temperatures to gradually increase during the next few
days. Rain and storm chances today are minimal (<10%). Of course,
one can never fully rule out an isolated cell or two in this type
of air mass. The NBM shows at least modest amounts of instability
today, and even more tomorrow. Hence, we're including isolated
PoPs for Sunday (15-24%) across the bulk of the forecast area.
Max temps today are likely to reach the low 90s most areas,
excepting the higher elevations near the KY/VA border. And
tomorrow's max temps will be similar to today's. Maximum heat
index values are likely to top out in the mid to upper 90s today
and Sunday. A few spots may touch 100F, but we'll definitely
remain below heat advisory criteria.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
High pressure at the surface and aloft will strengthen by Monday,
which will largely help to suppress meaningful convective
development. There may be some isolated cells that develop on
Tuesday, but we won't experience appreciable rain and storm
chances until Wednesday, when an inverted trough looks to develop
across eastern Kentucky, and an upper low develops to our west.
The surface boundary will shift to our east by Thursday, but
we'll also find ourselves under a northwest flow aloft with
perhaps a weak shortwave passing through later in the week -- at
least enough to keep isolated to widely scattered convection in
the forecast on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures and heat index
values will start to come down on Wednesday, so this hot stretch
of days will come to an end just as our rain chances get going
again.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
All terminals are VFR at the moment, and dew point spreads are a
little larger than 24 hrs. ago. It is likely that most areas will
experience at least light radiation fog closer to morning, but
ceilings and vsbys shouldn't go nearly as low as what we saw
Friday morning. Once fog dissipates shortly after sunrise, expect
VFR conditions the rest of the way. There are very low rain and
storm chances later today, but probabilities are much too low to
warrant inclusion in the TAFs.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 2:08 AM EDT---------------
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