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121 FXUS64 KLIX 130447AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Now through Friday) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025The weak easterly wave should continue to move through the regiontoday and allow for additional convective development during the late morning through early evening. PWs of 2.21" seem favorable for coverage and some locally heavier rainfall with convection that develops. However, decided to shift POPs downward just a bitgiven latest guidance/cams being a bit less bullish. This patternthat has been rather tricky and persistent will finally evolve asan H5 ridge begins to spread westward from Florida over the northern Gulf. Eventually, this will help limit POPs slightly and allow temperatures to increase back into the lower and middle 90s by the end of the workweek. (Frye)&&.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday night)Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025The weekend begins with a 595dam mid level ridge over the region.This feature will help overall limit convective coverage during the afternoon and evening hours, but there continues to be a signal for isolated to scattered convection even with the high center over our region. Going through the weekend the ridge will slowly begin to refocus north and west of our region. Relatively higher heights will still be around, which suggests temperatures will be a bit higher...generally at or above average for mid August. Heat index values look to meet heat advisory criteria thisweekend and potentially into the start of the new workweek. A bitmore moisture may arrive by Tuesday increasing POPs just a bit, which may help limit heat ever so slightly by the end of the period. However, heat index values look to remain around 105F or so on Tuesday. (Frye) &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025Eventually, convection will again develop and spread westward across the region during the late morning and afternoon. Kept mostly PROBs for now. VIS/CIG reductions can be expected in convection. Otherwise, winds should continue to remain light and somewhat variable through the cycle with a bit higher winds possible around convection. (Frye) &&.MARINE...Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025Convection will continue with a bit higher coverage today andperhaps Thursday before high pressure begins to spread into theregion from the east. With convection continue to expect locallyhigher winds and seas as well as the potential for morewaterspouts. Otherwise, outside of convection conditions shouldremain rather benign, especially later this week and into theupcoming weekend. (Frye) &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 90 73 91 73 / 60 20 60 20 BTR 92 75 93 76 / 60 30 60 20 ASD 88 74 90 75 / 70 40 60 20 MSY 90 78 92 78 / 70 40 60 10 GPT 86 75 90 76 / 70 50 60 20 PQL 85 74 88 76 / 80 70 70 30 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
