JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 2:53 AM EDT115
FXUS63 KJKL 140653
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
253 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Still a chance for thunderstorms through the night and into the
day Thursday. Localized excessive rain will be possible.
- Cooler conditions linger into Thursday but above average
temperatures return this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
Weak high pressure at the surface continues to influence the
weather across eastern Kentucky this morning, while a weak
upper trough is likely to have some impact across the region by
this afternoon. The environment continues to exhibit relatively
deep moisture with modest instability, so there should be just
enough dynamics to squeeze out isolated to widely scattered
convection mainly during the afternoon hours today. Fortunately,
QPF values over the next 36 hrs. remain under 0.1" across the
majority of the JKL CWA, so excessive rainfall is not anticipated.
Upper-level troughing will stick around on Friday, and isolated
convection is once again possible mainly along the higher
elevations of far eastern KY. Afternoon temperatures will top out
in the mid to upper 80s most areas today, with a few spots maybe
reaching 90 degrees tomorrow afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
The long-term forecast period brings a shift in the synoptic flow
pattern as quasi-zonal flow breaks down and an upper-level ridge
builds into the region. Concurrently, a surface high-pressure system
will move in, leading to rising temperatures and a reduced threat
for showers and storms starting Friday and continuing through the
weekend. High temperatures will begin to climb into the upper 80s to
low 90s, with heat indices approaching 100 degrees over the weekend.
While shower and thunderstorm chances will still exist, they will be
isolated to scattered in nature. Any showers or storms will
dissipate overnight, and the resulting clearing will allow for the
development of overnight valley fog, with lows falling into the mid
to upper 60s.
Starting Sunday morning, an upper-level trough will track across
southern Canada and the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will drop
southeastward toward the Commonwealth on Sunday and Monday, before
stalling out along the Ohio River as the ridge builds to the south
of the area. This frontal forcing will increase precipitation
chances for Monday and Tuesday.
The main highlights of the long-term forecast are the increasing
heat through the weekend and the continued threat of afternoon
showers and storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
Overnight, expect widespread radiation fog and low stratus. VSBYs
and cigs are likely to drop into the IFR/LIFR category for
significant stretches during the next several hours owing to a wet
ground and light/calm winds. Conditions should improve somewhat
rapidly after sunrise, but there are low chances for TSRA during
the afternoon owing to a weak shortwave passage during the day.
For now, we'll handle this with PROB30 groups owing to the low
probability.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...ROSE
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 14, 2:53 AM EDT---------------
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