MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 6:20 AM CDT ...New Aviation...716
FXUS64 KMOB 121120
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
An inverted trough currently extends from south-central Alabama
down through the central Gulf. This feature will continue to
slowly move to the northwest over the next day or so before
weakening and dissipating. In addition, an associated plume of
deep tropical moisture (PWATs exceeding 2 inches and potentially
as high as 2.5 inches) is beginning to advect into the local area.
Over the next couple of hours, the axis of this trough should
move across our local area. As it does so, deep-layer winds will
abruptly shift from a general northeasterly to easterly pattern,
to a more southerly pattern. This will put us in a much more
favorable spot for showers and thunderstorms to develop and move
into the local area (rather than remaining offshore). Model
guidance suggests that convective coverage will steadily increase
and become more numerous to widespread throughout the remainder of
the overnight hours, especially over our coastal counties. These
high rain chances should continue through much of the day, before
possibly getting a brief reprieve during the late afternoon/early
evening hours. Given the very high moisture content in place,
storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers, and with
relatively weak steering pattern, storms will likely be slow
moving and could potentially train over the same locations. Latest
CAM guidance and HREF ensemble PMMs continue to suggest that
coastal counties could pick up a quick 2-4 inches over the next 12
to 18 hours, with even a few localized spots up to 6 inches.
Factoring in that soil moisture is relatively high (up to 50-60%
in spots) over coastal counties due to the rainfall received from
previous days, it may not take much for areas to experience some
flash flooding concerns, especially wherever these higher totals
are realized. We will continue to monitor radar trends closely
throughout the day today.
Once this inverted trough dissipates by Wednesday, upper ridging
will build in across the northern Gulf and will linger for the
remainder of the period. Although moisture values remain high,
subsidence from the ridge should help to bring rain chances back
down to a more typical 20-40 percent, especially as we get to the
weekend and into early next week.
With the increase in rain coverage, highs for today and tomorrow
will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s to around 90. By
Thursday and through the rest of the period, highs will increase
into the low to mid 90s as ridging builds in. At this point, heat
indices are forecast to remain just below Heat Advisory criteria,
however we will monitor trends over the coming days. A Moderate Risk
of rip currents will be in place through Wednesday, dropping to a
Low Risk by Thursday and into the weekend. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
Forecast confidence is low with regard to timing and duration of
showers/storms this morning. Clusters of storms continue to lift
northward from the Gulf, impacting KPNS and KJKA. These storms
will likely continue through 16Z and then activity should taper
off. Confidence is lower for KMOB and KBFM, though consensus is
that this activity will translate westward through the hour. Cigs
have also dropped into the LIFR and IFR categories. These cigs are
expected to lift, but MVFR conditions will likely prevail through
much of the day. Given the low confidence timing, amendments may
become necessary for KPNS, KBFM, and KMOB. /73
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
A light to moderate southeasterly flow this morning will turn
more southerly to southwesterly by tonight. This general pattern
will continue through Thursday before becoming more light and
variable by Friday and into the weekend. No impacts are expected
other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 85 74 89 74 91 74 93 74 / 80 50 70 10 40 10 40 10
Pensacola 86 77 89 78 90 78 92 78 / 80 50 60 10 30 0 20 0
Destin 87 79 89 79 89 79 92 79 / 80 50 60 10 30 10 20 10
Evergreen 87 72 89 73 92 72 95 73 / 80 40 70 20 50 10 30 10
Waynesboro 88 72 89 72 92 72 95 73 / 80 40 70 20 50 10 30 10
Camden 86 72 86 72 91 73 94 74 / 70 40 60 20 50 10 30 10
Crestview 87 74 89 73 91 73 94 74 / 80 40 70 10 40 10 30 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 12, 6:20 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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