MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 6:19 AM CDT ...New Aviation...292
FXUS64 KMOB 081119
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
619 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025
Now through Thursday...
An upper level trough meanders a bit west over the Southeast into
Sunday before an upper ridge off the East Coast builds west over the
region into the coming week, shifting the upper trough to over the
Southern Plains. A band of higher moisture levels (precipitable h20
levels > 2") along and south of the coast remains there into the
weekend before shifting inland as Atlantic moisture moves inland
over the Southeast. This influx is due to flow on the south side of
a surface ridge stretching southwest along the East Coast becoming
more organized. Best PoPs remain along and south of the coast into
the weekend, then move more inland mainly over eastern portions of
the forecast area over the weekend as moisture levels increase. In
the coming week, best PoPs remain over the southern half of the
forecast area in the coming week. This convection is expected to
continue to follow our typical summer pattern; showers and
thunderstorms forming along and south of the coast overnight into
the morning hours, then shifting onshore late morning through the
afternoon. Onshore convection may some rowdy storms, with MLCapes
rising to around 1500-2000J/kg. Add in drier air in the mid levels,
especially as one moves inland from the coast, and a few rowdy
storms are possible each afternoon/evening. Also, local ponding in
poor drainage areas remains possible.
High temperatures remain around seasonal norms through most of the
forecast. Around 90 to low 90s Friday drop into the upper 80s to
around 90 expected most days, with around 90 to the low 90s expected
Wednesday and Thursday. Heat Indices in the 95-100 degree range
expected most days, with 98-103 expected Wednesday and Thursday. Low
temperatures see a bit of a rise through the forecast, starting out
around 70 well north of I-10, mid to upper 70s south to the coast
Friday night. For Wednesday and Thursday nights, low 70s north of
Highway 84, mid to upper 70s are expected south.
Weak onshore flow and swell on area beaches will help to keep the
risk of Rip Currents Low through the weekend into the coming week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025
VFR conditions persist through the TAF cycle. Isolated showers
and storms are possible this afternoon, but most of the convection
is expected to remain over the Gulf. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025
Light and variable winds are expected the rest of the week before
becoming a more organized easterly this weekend into the coming
week. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 72 89 74 88 74 88 74 / 20 10 50 40 80 40 80 40
Pensacola 89 75 89 76 88 76 88 77 / 20 30 70 50 80 50 80 50
Destin 90 77 89 76 88 77 88 77 / 20 30 70 50 80 50 80 50
Evergreen 92 70 91 71 90 72 89 72 / 0 0 30 20 60 20 70 30
Waynesboro 92 71 91 71 89 72 89 72 / 10 0 20 10 50 20 60 20
Camden 90 71 89 71 89 72 89 72 / 0 0 20 10 50 20 50 20
Crestview 90 71 88 72 88 72 88 73 / 20 10 60 30 80 30 80 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 8, 6:19 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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