IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:36 PM EDT180
FXUS63 KIWX 071636
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1236 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
- Very warm Saturday through Monday with highs near 90. Heat
indices in the 90s.
- An isolated thunderstorm is possible through the weekend. Very few
locations will receive rain.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
Convective temperatures in the mid 80s starting to be reached in
western areas with some cu development noted. Eastern areas
approaching this temperature range with no imminent
development. CAMs have backed off on any signals for convection
this afternoon in the same areas that have experience limited
development the past 2 days. Sfc obs may suggest some weak
pockets of convergence, but flow is so light (6 kts or less)
hard to determine if just some variability given the light flow
or something else. After discussion with northern offices, have
went to silent 14 pops along/east of I-69 for the afternoon.
Afternoon package will focus on limited (if any) chances for
convection overnight into Friday. Signals also seem to lean
heavily against this materializing, but still sifting through
all the data.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
Isolated thunderstorms should develop during this afternoon with
daytime heating with the best coverage between 19Z and 01Z as
has been the pattern during the past several days. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely given very little storm movement and
exceptionally high precipitable water values between 1.9" and
2.2". At this time, the best storm coverage by late afternoon
should be over northwest Ohio where development was favorable
yesterday. It is possible the showers and storms upstream may
evolve into a MCS and eventually move into northern Indiana.
The proximity of an upper level will continue to have a major
impact on the weather through the middle of next week. The GFS
has been reasonably consistent with the 500 mb upper level
height fields. Upper level upstream negative height anomalies
will continue to keep downstream ridging over the Ohio River
Valley region with 500 mb heights generally 100 meters above
normal. ECMWF EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) and Shift of Tails
has been showing a fairly consistent signal with high
temperatures in the 70th to 90th percentiles on Sunday through
Tuesday according to the Ensemble Situational Awareness Table.
In this regard, the blend temperatures look to be about 3
degrees too cool Tuesday. Storm coverage and rain cooled air may
be a factor. WPC forecast rainfall amounts appear to be only
0.10" to 0.20". Otherwise, highs will be in the 80s to around 90
degrees through next Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 531 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025
Mist/fog will continue to dissipate this morning. Mostly dry
conditions are expected today. A weak system moves through the
northern portions of the area with a few showers/thunderstorms
possible this afternoon and early evening, however expectation
is these should stay well north of both TAF sites. Overnight
tonight still mentioning a lowering of vsbys to MVFR/IFR levels
after 09z Fri. Otherwise, continued weak surface winds will
continue though this TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Andersen
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:36 PM EDT---------------
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