PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 5:29 AM CDT430
FXUS63 KPAH 071029
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Primarily dry and seasonably hot conditions (low 90s) will
continue through the weekend.
- Rain chances may return next week, particularly Tuesday into
Wednesday.
- Typical summer-time heat and humidity are expected to continue
through much of next week with highs in the low 90s and heat
index readings nearing 100.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
The upper level pattern the next couple of days will feature ridging
centered across the southwest U.S. with weak troughing across the
southeast U.S. Meanwhile, there is a weakness in the 500mb flow
noted over Central Illinois early this morning that is expected to
sink south into our cwa today. Several CAMs indicate some isolated
convection may develop as this wave passes through. While the best
chance would be this afternoon, can't rule out some isolated showers
in the Wabash Valley/I-64 areas early this morning. Have kept PoPs
silent for now though, given the low confidence and likely low
spatial coverage of anything that does develop.
As the trough over the southeast U.S. weakens, the ridge to our
southwest will build northeast into the Ohio Valley and eastern U.S
this weekend. The ridge then becomes centered across the southeast
U.S. early next week. While this happens, shortwave energy will move
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Model guidance
does not have a good handle on this system, essentially being split
between a possible frontal boundary sinking south across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Tues/Wed or the possibility it remains to our
north and keeps us primarily dry. For now, the low chance PoPs the
NBM has seems reasonable.
Temperatures will not vary much at all through the 7 day period,
with highs primarily in the low 90s and lows in the low 70s.
Humidity levels remain seasonable with dew points in the upper 60s
to around 70 through the weekend before a little uptick into the low
to possibly mid 70s occurs early to mid next week. Peak heat index
readings will primarily remain in the mid to upper 90s through the
weekend, and then nudge more into the upper 90s to around 100 next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
High pressure will provide calm or light and variable winds
throughout the forecast period. Early morning fog development
will result in patchy areas of MVFR/IFR vsbys through 13z. Cu
field will develop late this morning with bases around 5kft this
afternoon. There is a very small chance for an isolated shower
or storm this afternoon. There may be additional fog formation
late tonight into tomorrow morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 5:29 AM CDT---------------
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