IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 3:08 PM EDT ...Warmer Summertime weather with shower/storm chances returning...285
FXUS63 KIND 061908
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
308 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to widely scattered showers or storms through early
evening, primarily northeast
- Fog possible again tonight, with patchy dense fog possible in
valleys and other favored areas
- Dry through the weekend, with gradually warmer and more humid
conditions expected
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return next work week
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
REST OF TODAY
Isolated to widely scattered convective development is occurring,
primarily across our far east/northeast nearest the trough axis,
though a few cells have popped from time to time across other
portions of the forecast area. Will carry scattered PoPs in the
northeast and 14 PoPs with a sprinkle mention elsewhere, as
convection is unlikely to be deep or robust enough across most of
the area to produce lightning. This convection will dissipate
rapidly around sunset.
As we near peak heating, temperatures across the area range from the
low to mid 80s, with highs likely to rise another couple of degrees
into the mid to upper 80s.
TONIGHT
Any lingering convection will dissipate rapidly as sunset nears,
with measurable PoPs ending by 00Z.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, though some high cloud may
increase a bit late in the night. A weak surface pressure gradient
should allow for light to calm winds overnight and a good
radiational cooling setup. This, along with slowly increasing
dewpoints, should set the stage for another night with areas of fog,
with potentially some dense fog, particularly in valleys and other
climatologically-favored areas. Will carry a mention in the grids
commensurate with that in the aviation forecasts. This fog will mix
out in typical diurnal fashion with sunrise Thursday.
Lows overnight, given the good radiational cooling setup, should
drop to near dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, or just slightly
above persistence.
THURSDAY
Although a weak upper level disturbance may approach the western
portions of the area on Thursday, a largely subsident atmosphere and
capping aloft should prevent any deep convection from occurring, and
will continue with a dry forecast.
Thicknesses rise a bit tomorrow just as today, which should again
drive highs to a bit above persistence, into the mid 80s to near 90,
continuing a slow warming trend into the weekend. Humidity will push
peak heat indices back into the 90s, though certainly nowhere near
as oppressive as those experienced late last month. Surface flow
will return to southerly, though a continued weak pressure gradient
and light flow aloft will prevent any gustiness.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
...Warmer Summertime weather with shower/storm chances returning...
Friday through Sunday...
On Friday, Models suggest that strong high pressure will be in place
aloft over the American southwest, with an upper ridge extending
northeast to the upper midwest. This will place Indiana in a lee
side position aloft with subsidence in play. On Friday, strong
surface high pressure will be in place along the Atlantic coast.
This system will still be controlling Indiana/s weather and
providing a warm southerly surface flow. This pattern looks to
remain in place on Saturday and into Sunday, allowing warm and more
humid gulf air to continue to arrive into Central Indiana. However
aloft, through the weekend the ridging aloft begins to translate
east, allowing southwest flow of develop aloft over Central Indiana
by late Sunday. This southwest flow aloft will be ahead of a deeper
trough that will be setting up over the high plains. Forecast
soundings suggest enough CAPE may be present for afternoon diurnal
showers or storms, but coverage on this should be quite minimal and
with subsidence in place aloft, confidence is low. The southerly
flow as the weekend progresses will allow for a return to high
temperatures in the 90s.
Monday through Wednesday...
Southwest flow aloft becomes more predominate aloft as a trough of
low pressure settles over the plains states during this time. Models
hint at some weak short waves passing within the flow aloft that
could pass across Indiana providing forcing. Meanwhile at the
surface mainly southerly flow is suggested at the surface allowing
for a continuation of warm and humid air flowing into the Ohio
Valley. Forecast soundings suggest favorable CAPE values, over 2000
j/kg each day and steep lapse rates each day favorable for
convection. Thus daily chances for showers and storms will be needed
again, with daily highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
Impacts:
- Isolated convection possible this afternoon
- MVFR or worse fog possible late tonight, primarily at the outlying
terminals
Discussion:
Potential will exist for isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms this afternoon, but this activity is likely to be east of all
terminals, and will not be mentioned in the TAF.
Scattered to broken cumulus based around 3500-4000 feet can be
expected this afternoon, dissipating after sunset.
With dewpoints on the increase and light to calm winds overnight,
another night of fog, possibly dense in spots, is expected. IND will
likely see no worse than brief periods of MVFR, but the
outlying/more fog prone terminals will likely see at least brief IFR
or worse, and will carry prevailing MVFR with TEMPO groups for worse
conditions at each of these sites, blending guidance and persistence
as a first approximation. Any fog that develops will mix out in
typical diurnal fashion after sunrise.
Winds through much of the period will be light and variable, if not
calm overnight, though where there is a consistent direction, it
will likely be southeasterly before turning more southerly tomorrow.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Nield
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 3:08 PM EDT ...Warmer Summertime weather with shower/storm chances returning...---------------
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