BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 7:49 AM EDT519
FXUS61 KBOX 011149
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
749 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler conditions are expected into Friday, with the
potential for heavy rain and localized flooding tonight across
portions of interior southern New England. An extended stretch
of dry weather then develops for this weekend into early next
week. Temperatures are seasonable with lower humidity levels
this weekend, but with a warming trend for early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Showers end during the morning near the south coast with
sunshine developing from NW to SE this afternoon. Below
normal temperatures.
Low pressure moves away from southern New England today.
Expecting the axis of heaviest rainfall to be along the south
coast of New England around 8 AM, which then takes until around
noon to move over the coastal waters. Thinking plenty of
sunshine develops from NW to SE this afternoon. However, more
clouds are likely to linger across the Cape and islands right
into this evening.
NE winds will result in below normal temperatures across
southern New England.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Clearing and chilly tonight with lows in the 50s
* Continued dry with below normal temperatures Saturday
The core of a sprawling high pressure should move over MN and WI
today, then gradually move east tonight into Saturday. No
rainfall to speak of, but below normal temperatures continue. A
little warmer Saturday since we will not have to contend with
many clouds. Winds should also be more more north than
northeast, mitigating some of the effect from the colder ocean
waters for most locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Several days of dry and seasonable weather starting this
weekend.
Upper flow should feature broad trough over Northeast this
weekend and into much of next week, which will allow for a dry
and seasonable weather pattern to prevail. We start to see more
uncertainty toward the end of the week, when subtropical ridge
should build off southeast coast and dig deeper trough over
eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. While we don't see return
of hot and humid conditions, it may promote moisture feed up
East Coast and could bring our next round of rainfall,
especially if we see surface low development near mid Atlantic
coast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing, especially towards the south coast of New England.
Showers ending this morning across the I-95 corridor by 13z/14z with
improvement to MVFR, showers linger across the Cape and Islands
through 16z/18z. Then to VFR this afternoon as skies eventually
clear. NE winds gusting for the coastal terminals 18 to 20
knots.
Tonight and Saturday...High confidence.
VFR.
N/NNW winds tonight then N/NE winds Saturday are expected.
KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Showers continue through 13z/14z with improvement to low-end VFR
by 14z. By 18z ceilings are BKN050 with clouds becoming SCT
after 22z. VFR conditions tonight into Saturday.
KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday through Tuesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Saturday...High confidence.
Increasing NE winds today with gusts to 30 kt as low level jet
develops. Gusty winds will slowly subside across NE MA waters
later in the day, but this will take until Saturday over the
southern outermost coastal waters.
Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Sunday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
ANZ231>235-237-250-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ236.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/JWD
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/JWD
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 7:49 AM EDT----------------
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