IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 9:45 PM EDT276
FXUS63 KIND 010145
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
945 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected through Sunday
- Rain chances return by Monday and persist through mid- late
next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Clouds are being stubborn and taking longer to depart than
previously expected. Still, the back edge of the clouds across
northern Indiana is still making progress toward the area. Have
adjusted sky cover up and slowed the clearing as needed.
Radar and surface observations show some sprinkles moving southwest
across, so have added these for a few hours.
Surface level smoke is to the north and west of central Indiana, and
current flow should keep these out of the area. Smoke models do show
a slight increase late tonight, but feel that this won't be enough
to mention in the forecast. Elevated smoke will continue.
Low temperatures look reasonable given current trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
This afternoon...
Current radar shows mostly quiet weather conditions across central
Indiana with only isolated light showers lingering across the far
south and some light drizzle near or south of the I-70 corridor.
This lingering light precipitation should diminish over the next few
hours as high pressure continues to build in. Drier air filtering in
from the north is also helping to gradually clear out clouds.
Extensive cloud cover and northeasterly flow has mostly kept
temperatures steady in the upper 60s to 70s for most locations. A
few areas across the far south have managed to sneak into the low
80s though due to less cloud cover.
This evening through Friday...
Expect clouds to continue clearing out this evening as a drier
airmass and high pressure builds in. Large scale subsidence will
provide quiet weather conditions through the remainder of the
period. Weak cold air advection and diminishing low-level moisture
will help overnight lows fall into the mid 50s to low 60s. Latest
guidance depicts wildfire smoke advecting into the area within mean
flow aloft tonight into Friday. There is low confidence in any of
this smoke mixing to the surface, but cloud cover was capped at 30%
to account for hazy skies.
Deep mixing and a very dry airmass aloft on Friday will likely lead
to lower dewpoints and RH values compared to what blended guidance
is suggesting. High resolution models, which typically resolve
boundary layer mixing more accurately, were incorporated during peak
heating Friday. Highs ranging from near the mid 70s to low 80s and
dewpoints well in the 50s will feel very pleasant for early August.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Friday night through the weekend...
Overall thoughts remain the same regarding the forecast over the
weekend. Surface high pressure centered across the region will
provide quiet and pleasant weather conditions. Below normal
temperatures are expected with the help of cooler air aloft from
lingering upper troughing and northeasterly surface flow.
Highs generally ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s will feel
fantastic compared to the heat earlier this week. Much drier air
with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s should also make it feel
much more comfortable. High resolution models will likely be
incorporated to forecast dewpoints more accurately during peak
heating this weekend given the setup (deep mixing and a very dry
airmass aloft). Blended guidance commonly underestimates diurnal
mixing or dewpoints in these setups. Enjoy the early August
relief.
Monday through Thursday...
Return flow behind departing surface high pressure will allow for
gulf moisture to return northward. Expect increasing dewpoints,
humidity, and daily shower/storm chances. Long range guidance also
shows subtle impulses moving through aloft which could provide
additional forcing for convection. Look for the greatest
precipitation chances during peak heating. South or southeasterly
surface flow will lead to a gradual warming trend. Highs in the low
80s Monday are expected to return to the mid 80s by mid-late week.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Impacts:
- Lingering MVFR ceilings will gradually improve to VFR from north
to south this evening
- Some drizzle may occur early, mainly northern sites
Discussion:
Area of MVFR ceilings is shifting slowly south this evening. Within
this area, ceilings bounce between BKN015 and BKN030. Some bouncing
to VFR will also occur at times before the drier air moving in
erodes the clouds.
VFR conditions are expected overnight as drier air continues to move
in. Some scattered cumulus are possible on Friday.
Smoke from wildflowers should remain elevated over the TAF sites and
not impact surface visibility.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 9:45 PM EDT---------------
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