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948 FXUS64 KLIX 292028AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA328 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025A broad upper level ridge is vaguely centered near the OK/AR region and is expanded across the nearly the entire southern half of the country. It has been and will continue to slowly retrograde westward today. That puts the southeastern US right on the southeastern periphery of the high. This time of year with such strong daytime heating, minimal decreases in subsidence are still it takes for storms to develop and thats what we're seeing this afternoon. CAMs are in pretty good agreement that the eastern half of the CWA will see the bulk of afternoon and evening convection as storms roll in from the northeast. No surprise looking at BFR soundings that DCAPE is high from inverted V profile and ample instability aloft. Strong to marginally severe downdrafts will be the main concerns with more robust cells. Its a bit more uncertain during the overnight period as to whether new storms develop in the 06-14Z timeframe. Then, some models keep convection offshore while others are more widespread to inland parts of the CWA. That uncertainty carries over into Wednesday. Heat advisory was re-issued for Wed under the assumption that convection will be minimal. If storms persist will into the morning hours, temps may not recover fast enough for heat indicies to reach above 107. MEFFER &&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday night)Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025A broad upper level trough will spread south from Canada across the northeastern US Thursday through Friday night. This will drastically erode the eastern side of the upper ridge aloft and thus reduce subsidence substantially. Forecast POPs Thurs onward is pretty much what you'd expect this time of year without strong ridge overhead... high rain chances with the potential for small scale localized flooding in the afternoons. It'll still be fairly hot but coverage will most likely start too early in the day and be too widespread for the need for a heat advisory. MEFFER &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025VFR conditions generally still in place across the region this afternoon even as CU field begins to spread southward from MS. Ceilings range from just above 3kft to several thousand feet. The most likely appreciable impact at terminals this afternoon would come from developing showers and storms. Coverage will likely increase for terminals southeast of a KMCB to KHUM line. Therefore, the terminals in that area have been updated with the 18Z TAF issuance to account for storm potential this afternoon and evening. MEFFER&&.MARINE...Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025Pressure gradient remains quite low across the Gulf. That'll allow for mesoscale features such as differential heating and convective outflow drive wind speeds and directions. Some storms could easily produce gale force gusts, especially in the daytime hours. It's not until late week before surface ridge develops in the southeastern Gulf and promotes consistent gradient flow. MEFFER &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 75 93 73 93 / 40 70 30 60 BTR 77 94 76 94 / 50 70 40 60 ASD 75 93 75 93 / 60 60 30 70 MSY 80 94 79 94 / 70 80 30 70 GPT 77 93 78 93 / 50 70 30 60 PQL 75 93 76 93 / 60 70 30 60 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056-059-064>071-088>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.GM...None.MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>085. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...KLGLONG TERM....KLGAVIATION...KLGMARINE...KLG
