MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 2:52 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...215
FXUS64 KMOB 281952
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
252 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
The upper-level ridge responsible for the very hot/dry weather we
have seen over the past couple of days will slowly retrograde to
the west throughout the week. We will still be somewhat under its
influence as we go through the day tomorrow, with highs once again
topping out in the upper 90s to around 100, however, a subtle
shortwave riding the eastern periphery of the ridge will likely
bring a chance of showers and storms to the local area by the
afternoon hours (PoPs generally around 40-60%). With dew points in
the low to mid 70s (possibly upper 70s along the coast), heat
indices will likely top out in the 105 to 112 degree range. In
addition, Heat Risk across the area is largely in the major
category (locally up to extreme category). Although there are
still questions with regards to convective coverage and how this
could affect overall heat indices across the area, went ahead and
issued another Heat Advisory for the entire local area.
We return back to a more typical summertime pattern through the
remainder of the period as weak troughing digs into the eastern US,
helping to keep our local area underneath a general weakness in the
flow aloft. With PWATs generally above 2 inches, weak shortwave
impulses moving within the weakness aloft, and a weak frontal
boundary pushing in and stalling across the area, scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected to develop each day.
Activity will generally follow a typical diurnal pattern, with
showers and storms developing during the morning over our marine
zones and along the coast, pulse-type storms developing during the
afternoon hours, and activity eventually dissipating during the
evening due to the loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with
this type of pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable
of producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very
heavy rainfall.
The increase in rain chances should help to lower high temperatures
a bit as we go through the remainder of the period. Highs by late
week and into Saturday will top out in the low to mid 90s, lowering
slightly further into the upper 80s to low 90s by Sunday and Monday.
A few locations could reach Heat Advisory criteria once again on
Wednesday, although it will likely be more localized in comparison
to recent days. We should remain below Heat Advisory criteria from
Thursday through the remainder of the period. The rip current risk
will generally be low through the week, although there could be a
brief bump to moderate on Thursday for our western Florida Panhandle
beaches due to a brief, increased onshore flow. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025
A light to moderate northwesterly to westerly flow will continue
through Tuesday night. Winds turn southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will persist through the end of the week. No impacts are
expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near
thunderstorms. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 78 96 75 92 76 92 76 93 / 10 60 40 60 30 50 10 50
Pensacola 81 96 78 92 80 93 80 93 / 10 50 30 40 20 30 10 40
Destin 82 95 80 92 82 92 81 92 / 10 40 30 30 10 30 10 30
Evergreen 77 97 75 94 74 93 75 93 / 10 60 40 60 30 40 10 60
Waynesboro 76 96 74 94 73 93 73 93 / 10 50 30 70 30 60 20 60
Camden 76 97 75 93 74 93 75 92 / 10 40 40 70 30 50 20 60
Crestview 76 97 75 94 75 93 75 94 / 10 60 30 60 10 40 10 60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 2:52 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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