JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 3:41 AM EDT613
FXUS63 KJKL 290741
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
341 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Peak afternoon heat index values are expected to reach 100 to
110 degrees in most places Tuesday and Wednesday.
- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
through the next week, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours
on most days. They could bring isolated heavy rainfall,
especially Wednesday and Thursday, which may extend into Friday
for parts of southeastern Kentucky.
- A cold front will bring significant relief from heat and
humidity by late this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
Strong upper ridging over the Central U.S. and Ohio Valley will
become increasingly suppressed over the next 48 hours as a zonal mid-
latitude jet stream will begin moving south in association with a
relatively strong shortwave reaching the Upper Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday evening. A relatively strong surface cold front will move
south from Canada during this period, and by mid-evening Wednesday
will be situated across the southern Great Lakes region.
Drier mid-level air will begin to move south into the region today
as mid-level ridging strengthens/builds over Eastern Kentucky.
Despite the arrival of drier mid-level air, surface humidity will
remain highly elevated, resulting in oppressive heat index values in
the 100 to 110 degree range. Will thus continue the Heat Advisory
with no changes.
Moderate to strong instability is expected this afternoon and
evening, which will inevitably fire off a few storms anytime from
late this morning through early this evening. However, coverage of
storms should be a bit more limited compared to recent days given
the lack of a clearly identifiable lifting mechanism, at least at
this point in time.
Another oppressively hot and humid day is expected Wednesday with
increasing warm and moist advection into the region pushing PWs back
up to and above 2 inches by late afternoon in the south, and above 2
inches by mid to late evening across the remainder of the CWA.
With the warm advection and disturbance moving northeast into
eastern Kentucky by late afternoon, would expect to see increasing
shower and thunderstorm chances from south to north as the
afternoon progresses.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
Longwave trough becomes established over the Midwest and Ohio Valley
Wednesday evening, and remains over the region through the remainder
of the long-term. Numerous disturbances will push across eastern
Kentucky during this time, keeping active weather in the forecast
despite much cooler conditions for much of this time.
Beginning Wednesday evening, strong surface and low-level
convergence is noted as a cold front pushes south to near/parallel
to the Ohio River, or perhaps to near the I-64 corridor, but is met
by strong resistance from the strong warm advection ahead of a
strong disturbance moving toward the area from the west-northwest.
Would thus expect the Wednesday evening into the overnight period to
potentially be active, with the potential for widespread NBM PoPs
currently in the 40 to 50 percent range needing to be raised into
the likely or categorical range as this period draws nearer.
The cold front, after stalling briefly Wednesday night near/along
the Ohio River, begins to push southeast slowly across the area
Thursday into Thursday night, with a reinforcing push arriving
with another passing disturbance Friday that looks to usher a much
cooler and drier air mass into the region, at least temporarily.
Much of the rest of the long-term period appears to be characterized
by a series of digging disturbances into a longwave trough over or
just west of the region, with low-level southeasterly low-level flow
advecting Atlantic moisture over the Southern Appalachians into the
southern Ohio Valley, thus keeping sufficient moisture and
instability in the area for daily diurnal shower and thunderstorm
chances despite cooler conditions.
Have elected to keep the NBM temperatures and PoPs given the
uncertainties with individual disturbances, but the overall general
pattern is in decent agreement between the GEFS and EPS. The major
take-home point from this weekend into next week, however, is the
much cooler conditions providing relief for those who are heat-
sensitive and/or heat-vulnerable.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2025
The last of the storms are fading out to the south with just a
isolated threat for one overnight. Given most areas experienced
recent rainfall, patchy to areas of fog is expected to develop
early this morning and affect most sites. Ceiling and Vis
restrictions have been included in all TAF sites for this, with
onset around 07 or 08Z lasting through 13Z. Conditions improve by
midday with a renewed, but smaller, chance of storms in the
afternoon - mainly for the western terminals. Winds will be light and
variable through the period - away from any storms.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 3:41 AM EDT---------------
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