LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 1:31 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...709
FXUS63 KLMK 270531
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
131 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Heat Advisory this afternoon through Sunday evening over all of
southern Indiana and part of central Kentucky. Heat Advisory then
covers all of southern Indian and central Kentucky Monday through
Wednesday.
* Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening
convection possible.
* Heat and humidity continue into next week, but a cool down is
expected after mid-week and into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Temperatures are hovering in the upper 80s to around 90 this
afternoon, with another degree or two still possible through peak
heating. In addition, dew points are running high in the mid 70s for
most. A few spots are even seeing upper 70s values. The end result
is another hot and humid day. Heat Index values are mostly in the
upper 90s to around 100, but a few spots are peaking a bit higher.
Advisory is probably overdone for today given we aren't really
meeting criteria, but given it is close and in the middle of longer
heat it can be justified. Will keep the Heat Advisory as is for the
rest of today and tomorrow as the placement looks pretty good. Big
changes were to extend the current Advisory out through Wednesday,
and add our eastern two tiers of counties for Monday - Wednesday.
See long term discussion for more info.
Otherwise, hot and humid conditions continue outside of the isolated
to widely scattered shower and storm activity this afternoon and
early evening. Convection has struggled quite a bit given the lack
of shear, however coverage has been decent, especially across our
NE.
Pretty much a persistence forecast for the overnight with lows in
the mid to upper 70s. Urban heat islands will stay around 80 for
lows. Sunday brings a repeat of today, with perhaps a tick or two
higher for temps and overall heat indices. Look for highs mostly in
the lower to mid 90s with high dew points well into the 70s once
again. The morning should be mostly quiet, with afternoon scattered
convection ramping up once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Sunday Night - Wednesday Night...
Strong upper ridging (595+ dam at H5) will center to our south early
in the week, and then continue to retrograde to the central CONUS by
mid week. This will keep a hot airmass in place as H85 temps of 20+C
will hold over our area. The ridge won't be completely void of
precipitation activity as we are displaced enough from the center to
limit any notable subsidence inversion. As a result, expect isolated
to widely scattered diurnal convection will be possible once
convective temps are reached each afternoon. Any shower or storm
will be able to provide some temporary relief from the heat, but
overall sparse coverage will not provide widespread relief. Overall,
deep layer shear will continue to be weak through the column, so any
convection will be pulse in nature, capable of brief heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and plenty of lightning.
The main story will continue to be the heat and humidity. High
temperatures in the mid 90s combined with dew points in the mid to
upper 70s should yield peak afternoon heat indices mostly in the 100-
110 degree range. The highest values are expected to be along and
west of I-65, where dew points will be the highest. It is possible
we could flirt with Extreme Heat criteria in our western CWA any of
these afternoon's, but convective chances and potential for some
drier air to mix out the the oppressive dew points hurt confidence a
little bit. Will extend the current Heat Advisory out in time
through Wednesday with this forecast package as Heat Advisory
threshold will continue to be met, and duration becomes quite long
by early to mid-week. In addition, going to go ahead and issue a
Heat Advisory for our eastern two tiers of counties for Monday -
Wednesday. Don't normally go out this far in advance for headlines,
but confidence is really high for early to mid week criteria being
met. Don't forget there won't be much overnight relief either as
lows will mostly be in the mid to upper 70s. Around 80 in the urban
areas.
Thursday - Saturday...
The upper ridge axis continues to retrograde westward late week,
allowing for a bit of "weakness" in the ridging over our area thanks
in large part to a low amplitude trough over the Great Lakes and
eastern Canada. This weakness in the ridge should allow for a cool
frontal boundary to sink southward into our area by Thursday, with
greater shower and storm coverage. The good news is this frontal
boundary will also be a "gateway" to more reasonable temperature and
humidity values. The front should mostly sink south of the area by
Friday and Saturday, with perhaps some small shower or storm chances
hanging on across our south each PM. Highs during this stretch
should be back mostly in the 80s with dew points mostly in the 60s.
May even see some upper 50s dew points across southern IN!
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. During the
day, scattered cu is expected. There is a still a chance for an
isolated shower or thunderstorm, but believe most of the activity
will remain north and east (LEX) of the TAF sites. HNB, SDF, and LEX
are likely near the southern extent of most of the activity that is
expected over southern Indiana into northern Kentucky.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
KYZ023>040-045>047-053-054-061>065-070>076.
Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Monday to 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ041>043-048-049-055>057-066-067-
077-078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 1:31 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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