LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 11:34 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...201
FXUS64 KLIX 230434
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1134 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Wednesday's forecast is on the complicated side. On one hand, it
looks to be the hottest day of this stretch of heat. On the other
hand, it also looks to be the first day we see more elevated PoPs
return to the forecast. Now usually, these two together wouldn't
make a ton of sense because having elevated rain chances tends to
cool us down a bit. However, taking a look at model data the
convection currently looks like it will be delayed enough to allow
for us to hit peak heating. The only area that looks to have a
better chance of convection prior to peak heating is coastal MS.
However, CAM guidance does have it pretty isolated in nature for
the first couple hours which likely allows for areas to reach
peak heating. Areas further west aren't looking to see any
convection until past peak daytime heating in the early to mid
afternoon. With all this, we did hit 108-112F heat index values
today and with tomorrow expected to be warmer overall an upgrade
to an Extreme Heat Warning was done for areas north of the I-10/12
corridor. The only areas not part of the warning now are along
coastal LA where a heat advisory has been issued.
Tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure that is
currently located back towards the Florida panhandle will push
towards our area tomorrow. Showers and storms look to begin firing
along coastal MS sometime in the mid to late afternoon hours.
PoPs peak in the early evening hours around 40-50%, mostly for
eastern parts of the CWA.
Heading into Thursday, our tropical moisture looks to be moved
well into the area which shows in the PWATs rising up to ~2.30in.
PoPs closer to the coast will be higher than further north as the
weak low pressure system skirts along the coast or even remain
completely offshore. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
likely for southern areas, while further north may be more
scattered in nature. The good that comes with this is that the
increased rain chances should help cool us down some. Just how
much it cools us down will depend on how widespread convection
ends up being. Will need to monitor this as convection remaining
further south could result in northern areas possibly creeping
back towards heat headline criteria.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Forecast looks rather wet again for much of the extended. Medium
range models are in fairly good agreement and given the deep
moisture to our east that is expected to move in and linger
through the weekend. NBM at a glance looks good with high pops
each day and any adjustments would be very minor.
The controlling feature is actually the ridge that is slowly moving
to the north tomorrow. This ridge will become centered over the TN
Valley and the southern Appalachians Thursday and then by the end of
the week and into the weekend will extend from the TX panhandle
across the TN Valley and southeast off the SC/NC coast. This ridge
wraps around the Gulf but yet is displaced far enough to the north
that it will not suppress convection and will allow that area of
deep tropical moisture to slowly drift west if not trap it. The deep
moisture alone doesn't necessarily mean we will get widespread
showers and thunderstorms however there is a mid lvl inverted trough
that just lays up across the Lower MS Valley Friday through the
weekend. This will provide lift across the region and combine that
with the moisture in place numerous to widespread showers and
thunderstorms should have little difficulty developing each day with
storms driven diurnally, inland during the day and over the coastal
waters at night. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this likely continues for a
good majority of the forecast period. Convection may become more
scattered in nature tomorrow, mainly for terminals west of I-55.
With this, added in PROB30 for MSY, NEW, ASD, and GPT,
&&
onight and
the first half of the day
.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
High pressure will hang around through most of tomorrow, helping to
keep winds light. It along with a weak area of low pressure moving
along the northeastern Gulf coast will bring about offshore flow
tomorrow through Wednesday night. During the day Thursday the weak
area of low pressure will slide west leading to onshore flow
returning late Thursday and a slight increase in winds. SCS
headlines may be needed for the open waters Thursday night and
Friday. Convection will remain very isolated in nature through the
first part of Wednesday before we see tropical moisture return to
the region, increasing our chances of rain and thunderstorms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 97 76 93 / 0 20 10 80
BTR 77 97 78 93 / 0 20 10 80
ASD 77 98 75 91 / 10 30 40 90
MSY 81 97 81 92 / 0 30 40 90
GPT 79 98 77 91 / 10 40 50 90
PQL 77 97 75 90 / 10 50 60 90
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ066>070.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 22, 11:34 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE...---------------
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