LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 25, 10:56 AM EDT533
FXUS63 KLMK 251456
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1056 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Heat Advisory this afternoon/evening over all of southern Indiana
and part of central Kentucky
* Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening
convection possible
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Morning satellite and observations show mostly sunny skies across the
region this morning. Temperatures were in the middle 80s in most
locations. Dewpoints remained in the low-mid 70s resulting in heat
indices in the lower to middle 90s at this hour.
Remainder of the forecast remains on track for today. Afternoon
highs will warm into the lower 90s again, though dewpoints look to
be a degree or so less today. Afternoon heat index values will be
in the advisory range, though we are seeing some variation in the
heat index ranges depending on how close a particular sensor is to
forested areas and near crops. Some scattered convection is
expected this afternoon, mainly across southern IN and into portions
of northern Kentucky. Overall coverage looks to be limited to less
than 30% coverage in the north and down into the Lake Cumberland
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Today, the jet stream remains well north of most of the CONUS with
an upper high remaining over the Southeast. At the surface, a cold
front drapes southwest to northeast through north and central
Indiana. This will likely produce some showers and thunderstorms
north of the CWA, but a shortwave dropping southeast from near the
area of the front and moving through southern Indiana and central
Kentucky could help to produce an isolated shower or storm. Other
than that forcing in the CWA remains weak with the main driver
continuing to be diurnal warming. With mid-level subsidence in place
and little to no shear, thunderstorm potential is expected to be
limited. Precipitable water values have fallen to around 1.7-1.8",
slightly lower than yesterday. Higher values will remain farther
north and south of the region. Light winds will remain out of the
southwest and south.
The Heat Advisory continues through the afternoon and evening hours.
It will be another warm day, but dew points may be a degree or two
lower than yesterday. Yesterday's heat indices varied greatly,
sometimes even in the same county. Be aware that vegetation can
enhance dew points and drive up heat indices. Take this into
consideration when working or playing near forests and crops.
Tonight, overall chances of precipitation will decrease with the loss
of diurnal warming, but a few isolated showers could continue into
the overnight period. Winds will go near calm.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Saturday, the upper high over the Southeast will begin to slide
west, and by Sunday, it will have amplify the upper ridge over the
central CONUS. This will likely lead to warmer temperatures and heat
indices into early next week. Isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening convection chances will continue through the
weekend for the Lower Ohio Valley, but overall most people will see
mostly dry days. The heat will continue with highs in the 90s and
dew points in the 70s through the middle of next week.
Guidance is looking a little faster with relief coming Wednesday
evening in the form of a cold front. As the upper high continues to
work west over the southern US, the upper ridge is expected to
amplify over the Rockies. This will cause a trough over the eastern
US. The trough with a surface high to the north will push a west to
east oriented cold front south through the Lower Ohio Valley,
bringing cooler temperatures and drier air for the late workweek.
Currently, precipitation with the front looks fairly limited.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
The forecast remains on track. VFR conditions are expected through
the period. Light southwest to south winds continue. Afternoon
cumulus could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening, but again this is too isolated to currently
include in the TAFs.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
KYZ023>040-045>047-053-054-061>065-070>076.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MJ
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION.....KDW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 25, 10:56 AM EDT---------------
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