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215 FXUS64 KMOB 182050AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL350 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains dominant over much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon, while an area of low pressure (currently known as Potential Tropical One) remains located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Much of our forecast area remains located along the southwestern periphery of the upper level ridge axis. Increased subsidence under this feature has kept conditions mostly dry over our region. Isolated rain showers have developed along the immediate coast and into southern portions of southeast MS where a narrow plume of enhanced moisture continues to pivot to the northwest. The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to nose southwestward through much of our area tonight before the ridge axis lifts slightly northward on Wednesday. Deep layer moisture will remain a little more enhanced over our Gulf marine zones tonight and potentially into our coastal land zones during the day Wednesday as a weak inverted trough moves from east to west over the Gulf. We expect dry weather conditions to remain prevalent tonight. A few showers could develop near the immediate coast again around daybreak Wednesday, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible in the region of higher moisture across southern portions of our CWA going into the day Wednesday. We will maintain 20-30% POPs on Wednesday across locations mainly along and to the southwest of a New Augusta, MS to Destin line. Low temperatures tonight should otherwise range from around 70 to the lower 70s over interior communities and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast. Highs Wednesday are forecast to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. Persistent moderate to strong easterly flow over the Gulf will result in continued dangerous surf conditions with large breakers up to 5-7 feet and deadly rip currents along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Wednesday. No changes are needed to the ongoing High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk. /21 &&.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday night)Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024Upper level high pressure sits over the Southeast through the Short Term, bringing zonal easterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico. A shortwave trough passes south of the northern Gulf Coast the end of the week. Surface low pressure meanders around over eastern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche, ultimately organizing into another surface low by Saturday. This surface low pressure along with a surface ridge off the East coast will create moderate to strong east to southeasterly flow over the Gulf through into the weekend. Highest moisture levels remain over the Gulf through the end of the week, until a more developed surface organizes over the Bay of Campeche. A more southeasterly low level flow develops over the northeast Gulf and Southeast, bringing Gulf moisture inland over the Southeast. Most guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising to around 2" by Saturday morning. Moisture levels over land remaining on the drier side combined with subsidence from the upper ridge will keep best chance of rain south of the northern Gulf Coast through the Short Term, with some bleed over inland near the coast. Temperatures rise from a more seasonal upper 80s to around 90 Thursday to around 90 to mid 90s on Friday. More modest moisture levels for this time of the year will keep Heat Indices below 100 for each day. Low temperatures ranging from around 70 well inland to around 75 along the coast are expected Wednesday through Friday nights.Strong swell will continue on area beaches...keeping the Rip Risk at high levels the rest of the week and most of the weekend./16&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024An upper level trough swings east over the Conus, shifting the upper ridge over the Southeast westward as the trough digs a mean upper trough off the East Coast by the middle of the coming week. The surface ridge over the East Coast shifts south to over the Caribbean, shifting low level flow to south by Monday, then southwesterly by Tuesday. More Gulf moisture flows inland over the Southeast in response. Decreasing upper subsidence and increasing moisture will bring an uptick in rain chances, to daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the coming week. Temperatures drop to a bit above seasonal norms, with the westward shifting upper ridge still maintaining control over western portions of the Southeast./16&&.MARINE...Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024A tight pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure stretching across the western Atlantic/eastern U.S. and Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the southwestern Gulf will result in a continued moderate to strong easterly flow over our marine area through Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the Gulf zones tonight into Thursday morning, and for Lower Mobile Bay/MS Sound at least through Wednesday afternoon. It is possible easterly winds could re-strengthen over Lower Mobile Bay/MS Sound again Wednesday night so we will need to look at potentially extending the advisory for those two zones in time if confidence in that scenario increases. Winds will gust to near gale force at times over the Gulf marine zones 20-60 nm out. Will monitor trends to see if a Gale Warning might be needed. Seas will remain hazardous between 7-10 ft through Wednesday night before very slowly subsiding through the end of the week. /21&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 75 89 73 91 72 94 72 94 / 10 30 10 30 20 20 10 30 Pensacola 77 91 75 91 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 20 50 30 30 20 40 Destin 78 91 76 91 75 93 77 91 / 10 20 20 50 30 30 20 40 Evergreen 70 91 68 91 68 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 20 0 20 10 30 Waynesboro 71 91 70 91 69 96 69 97 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 20 Camden 71 89 69 90 68 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 20 Crestview 71 93 70 93 69 96 71 96 / 10 10 0 40 10 30 10 40 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
