CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 1:40 AM EDT498
FXUS61 KCLE 170540
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
140 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east through the area on Thursday and
linger across the Ohio Valley as high pressure builds from the
north on Friday. This front will gradually lift back north on
Saturday, followed by a cold front on Sunday. High pressure will
build back into the area on Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Main concern for the near term period will be heavy rain from
thunderstorms and the potential for flash flooding through this
evening. Overall, confidence in any widespread flash flooding
appears to be decreasing, with any flash flooding concerns
through this evening likely only confined to urban areas,
driven by rate-driven heavy rain. Recent radar trends and
satellite imagery suggest that the most organized convection
through this evening will occur across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania with PWATs ranging between 2 and 2.20
inches. Elsewhere, mid-level dry air and weak flow may limit
storm organization leading to a lower flooding risk, albeit with
seasonably-high atmospheric moisture content.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage should gradually diminish
following sunset as the shortwave responsible for the earlier
convection moves east into Pennsylvania. Later this evening and
overnight, a stronger low pressure system will move northeast
through the Central Great Lakes, extending a cold front across
the area on Thursday. Can't rule out some scattered showers with
isolated thunder chances, though for the most part, this
appears to be a mostly dry frontal passage, with redevelopment
expected further south across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main concern for the short term period will be heavy rain and
flash flooding potential from thunderstorms late Saturday and
Saturday night. Aloft, an upper-level trough will move east
through the Upper Great Lakes while a ridge develops and builds
across the Deep South. A favorable environment for heavy rain
will be in place across the Lower Great Lakes region, with
PWATs once again approaching 2.0 inches in the vicinity of a
stationary front. WPC currently has much of the area in a slight
risk (level 2 out of 5) for flash flooding. There is currently
no SPC outlook at this point for Saturday, though could
certainly see future inclusion if model trends persist. Will
continue to monitor the potential over the next few forecast
iterations.
Otherwise, Friday will bring a welcome relief from the Summer
Heat behind Thursday's cold front as high pressure briefly
builds south across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be
slightly below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
and dew points in the lower 60s to perhaps upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main concern for the long term period will be the return of the
heat by Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest ensemble probabilities
depict low chances (10 to 30%) for Heat Indices to exceed 100
degrees, mainly across the western half of the area as a strong
upper-level ridge builds across the Deep South and expands
northwards into the Ohio Valley. Will continue to monitor the
developing heat potential over the next several forecast
iterations.
Otherwise, high pressure will briefly build in from the north by
late Sunday into Monday, leading to seasonable temperatures in
the low to mid-80s. Humidity levels will gradually increase on
Tuesday and Wednesday with dew points approaching the low to
mid-70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours for most of
the TAF sites. KCAK and KYNG are already seeing IFR ceilings due
to plenty of low level moisture from today's precipitation.
Those should continue through the early morning hours before
lifting to MVFR. All other sites should see MVFR ceilings
starting around 09-10Z and lasting through mid morning, around
15Z. There may be some lingering non-VFR ceilings come this
morning, so will need to monitor. Outside of ceilings, the TAF
period looks to be fairly dry outside of a few possible showers
at KCLE come early Friday morning. As the cold front moves
through on Thursday, there could be a chance for a few showers,
though confidence is low given the dry air moving in the mid
levels.
Winds will be south-southwesterly from 5-15 knots through the
early morning Thursday. Winds will begin to increase by Thursday
morning behind the cold front and veer to be more westerly.
Expecting winds to increase to 10-15 knots sustained with gusts
above 20 knots. KERI could see higher winds during the day as
they veer around due to downsloping. As the cold front departs
to the east late Thursday, winds will begin to subside to around
10 knots.
Outlook...VFR expected Friday before Non-VFR chances return
Saturday and Sunday in scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR
expected Monday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms
and non-VFR conditions starting on Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory is still in effect for Thursday through
Thursday night due to increased winds and waves across the lake
with a passing cold front. Winds will increase to 20-25 knots
sustained with waves building to 5-9 feet across the central and
eastern basins of the open waters. For the near shore zones,
winds will be around 15-25 knots with waves building to 5-8
feet before subsiding to 3-6 feet. After the low pressure system
and cold front move eastward, winds and waves will start to
subside across the lake into early Friday. Starting Friday,
winds will veer to be out of the north to northeast at 5-10
knots. Expect winds to be fairly light across the lake
thereafter through early Sunday. A low pressure system will
move through the region on Sunday and winds will increase to
10-15 knots out of the north before shifting to be out of the
east on Monday at around 10 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
this evening for OHZ010>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
afternoon for LEZ142>144.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
evening for LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 17, 1:40 AM EDT---------------
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