The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 5:36z for portions of ILN454
WUUS01 KWNS 160538
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025
VALID TIME 161200Z - 171200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 40738845 40578965 41609093 42609231 43319247 44759128
45228951 45108803 44318669 41628774 40738845
0.02 38430319 38140388 38300480 39810572 42160629 42480512
42100399 41140333 39350312 38430319
&&
... HAIL ...
0.05 42160305 41030244 39340230 39010091 39139978 38759924
37809939 36670049 36310189 36820406 37500485 38230534
39520597 41050763 41930735 42980639 43010404 42160305
0.15 37580400 37660469 38320514 41010587 42260586 42530499
42360407 41170318 39430293 38010312 37580400
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 45327605 43457401 41987382 40327454 38407730 38077831
37378122 37608589 38848997 38049608 36440027 36110102
35760316 37450455 39450596 40730731 41080756 41920725
42500494 42200311 40290095 39959917 40609320 41389206
43269252 44779125 45438894 46008484 45948275 45748111
0.15 44978893 44548682 43678526 42388542 41658675 41188757
40858806 40448884 40658965 41939061 43509123 44459085
44978893
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
SLGT 42260586 42530499 42360407 41170318 39430293 38010312
37580400 37660469 38320514 41010587 42260586
SLGT 44459085 44978893 44548682 43678526 42388542 40448884
40658965 41939061 43509123 44459085
MRGL 45107581 43457401 41987382 40327454 38407730 38077831
37378122 37608589 38848997 38049608 36110102 35760316
36810403 37500485 38230534 39450596 41050763 41930735
42980639 43010404 40290095 39959917 40609320 41389206
43269252 44779125 45438894 46008484 45948275
TSTM 28859358 30049359 32659203 34159224 34799327 34799444
32759646 32749824 33899954 34430202 34300330 32500495
31820524 31500381 31700243 31230163 28650111 99999999
30971219 32771139 33481144 34861316 36361374 37451427
38451531 38311650 37281818 37481907 38471900 40091781
41221659 41931425 41581238 42221079 43400932 43970950
44561053 45231033 46180642 46590299 45950057 45029876
44299819 43989683 44329580 46119380 46928980 48108287
99999999 46157074 41126918
&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
DGW 25 SE DGW 20 N TOR 10 WNW SNY 35 WNW ITR 20 E LHX 30 NE TAD 35
NW TAD 35 W PUB 25 SSW LAR 40 SW DGW.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
EAU 35 E AUW 35 WNW MBL 55 SSW HTL 10 NNE AZO BMI PIA 35 S DBQ 25 S
LSE 40 SE EAU.
THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
MSS 20 WNW GFL 25 N POU 15 E TTN 35 SSW DCA 10 ESE CHO BLF 40 SSW
SDF ALN 20 SSE EMP 35 NE BGD 40 WSW DHT 25 ENE RTN 35 WNW TAD 45 W
PUB 50 ENE ASE 40 N CAG 10 NW RWL CPR 50 WNW CDR 20 WNW MCK 55 NE
HLC 40 E LWD 30 NE OTM 40 E MCW 15 ESE EAU 30 ESE RHI 30 N PLN 70
NNE APN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ESE GLS 25 WSW LCH
10 N MLU 20 W PBF 25 NNW HOT 20 SSE RKR 25 ESE DAL 10 WSW MWL 55 SSW
LTS 25 NW PVW CVS 40 WNW CNM 25 W GDP 40 WSW INK 20 SW MAF 60 SE MAF
50 SSW DRT ...CONT... 110 SW TUS 50 NNW TUS 35 E PHX 45 WNW PRC 50 S
SGU 20 SE P38 65 SSW ELY 35 ENE TPH 10 ESE BIH 40 WNW BIH 60 ESE TVL
40 E LOL 45 NNE BAM 40 SSE TWF 30 NW OGD 45 SW BPI 50 WNW RIW 45 SSW
COD 30 ESE WEY 35 S LVM 30 SW MLS 15 SSW DIK 30 NNW MBG 35 SSW ABR
HON 20 S BKX 40 WSW RWF 25 SE BRD 30 NNE IWD 130 NNE ANJ ...CONT...
105 NNE BML 45 E ACK.
Source:
The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 5:36z for portions of ILN---------------
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