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245 FXUS64 KMOB 180921AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024Well the forecast has certainly trended drier the next couple ofdays as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic noses into the area. The reason for the stronger than originally advertised ridgeis the presence of Potential Tropical Storm one over the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf. While this system will likely drift westward into Mexico over the next couple of days, the heat released from this storm is aiding in strengthening the ridge of high pressure. Kinda like a car exhaust on a car engine. As a result, the ridge promotes more subsidence and slightly drier conditions the next 48 hours. The only rain chances today and tomorrow will likely be confined to the immediate coastline where moisture will be rich enough and the influences of the ridge will not be as strong. Otherwise, most of the area is expected to be dry the next 48 hours. However, PTC one will have an impact on area beaches as waves will be on the general increase leading to aHIGH risk of rip currents and large breaking waves at the beachesleading to a high surf advisory. BB/03&&SHORT and LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024An elongated upper ridge extending from the western Atlantic to the southern Great Plains will slowly sag southward through Fridaynight, and then retrograde westward over the weekend with upper troughing advancing eastward over the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes regions. Much of the precipitation will stay out over the Gulf through Friday, but we do expect isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon in association with the sea-breeze boundary pushing inland with the best chances remaining across our coastal zones. Rain chances lookto increase over the weekend (20-40%) and especially on Monday (60%) due to increasing weakness aloft as the upper ridge retrogrades westward.Daily highs will stay warm in the lower to middle 90s through Friday, pushing into the middle to upper 90s (about 3-7 degrees above normal) over the weekend into early next week. Overnight lows remain toasty with generally lower to middle 70s expected. A High Risk of rip currents will remain in effect through at least Friday. Surf heights will remain around 5 to 7 feet during this period. /22For the tropics, there's a couple areas of interest to watch overthe next week. The first is in association with PTC1 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system will remain well to our southwest and the only impacts from it will continue to be increased surf heights through Thursday and rip currents through late week into the weekend. Late week into the weekend models continue to be divergent on their solutions for the southwest Atlantic system. The good news is it appears the system is furthereast than anticipated initially, which means the odds of it staying well east of the forecast area are increasing. MM/25&&.MARINE...Issued at 421 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024A moderate to strong east-southeasterly flow will persistthroughout the marine zones through Thursday in response to PTC one in the Bay of Campeche and a large area of high pressure over the southeast. Small craft conditions with near gale force gusts will persist through most of the week with seas also increasing toaround 7 to 9 feet offshore with 2 to 3 feet in nearshore bays and waterways. Winds and seas are expected to slowly diminish by the weekend. BB/03&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 88 75 90 74 91 73 93 71 / 20 10 30 10 20 20 20 10 Pensacola 89 77 91 76 91 76 91 75 / 10 10 30 20 30 20 30 20 Destin 90 77 91 77 91 77 91 77 / 0 10 30 20 30 30 30 20 Evergreen 89 70 90 69 91 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 20 10 Waynesboro 89 72 91 71 91 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 Camden 88 71 89 69 90 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 Crestview 91 71 93 70 93 70 95 70 / 0 0 10 0 20 10 30 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
