WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jul 1, 8:15 AM CDT977
AGUS74 KWCO 011329
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #141 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
815 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Portions of southern Ohio across northern West Virginia into
southwestern Pennsylvania
WHEN: Into this afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 1 - 3", locally higher (HRRR)
Rainfall Rates: Up to 2"/hr (WPC)
Soil Moisture: 60 - 80% (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
Streamflows: Near to just above normal (USGS)
DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
move across the highlighted area this morning into this afternoon,
bringing locally heavy rainfall and increasing the chances for flash,
urban, and small stream flooding impacts. NASA SPoRT suggests that
top soils are wet, which may lead to efficient runoff into area
streams and rivers. Streamflows are generally running near to just
above normal, limiting channel capacity to handle excess runoff.
Widespread flooding is not expected, but given the convective nature
of the rainfall, isolated flooding impacts will be possible, with
urban areas being particularly vulnerable to flash flooding.
The HRRR-forced National Water Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast (SRF)
continues to highlight the potential for rapid-onset flooding (ROF)
in the highlighted area, with the greatest consistency in southern
Ohio stretching into southwestern Pennsylvania. High Flow Magnitude
Forecast (HFMF) signals show annual-exceedance probabilities (AEPs)
hovering around 50 to 20% with a few isolated areas in southern Ohio
and western Pennsylvania dipping down to 2%. This increases the
confidence that isolated flooding impacts may occur into this
afternoon, and that locally significant small stream flooding cannot
be ruled out.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//RJZ
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...ILN...RLX
ATTN...RFC...TIR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jul 1, 8:15 AM CDT---------------
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