JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 7:35 PM EDT729
FXUS63 KJKL 212335
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
735 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog, some possibly dense, may again affect the deeper
valleys along larger bodies of water tonight.
- Heat builds over the weekend through the middle of next week.
Heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range are forecast for
many locations from Sunday to Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 420 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
19Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered just south of
eastern Kentucky. This is making for another dry and sunny day
with just some fair weather cumulus clouds around. This has sent
temperatures to above normal for the area as the expected heat
wave starts to set up over the area. Accordingly, temperatures
have climbed to the mid and upper upper 80s while dewpoints are in
the mid to upper 60s, most places, amid light and variable winds.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the burgeoning 5h ridge over the
Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians tonight into Sunday.
This ridge peaks over the Mid Atlantic States for the beginning of
the new work week at near 600 decameters. This process will
continue to suppress convection over eastern Kentucky while also
shunting the mid level flow north of the Ohio Valley keeping any
impulses far away. The very small model spread through Sunday
night supported using the NBM as the starting point for the
forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just to
add in some terrain details for temperatures each night owing to a
decent setup for ridge to valley differences.
Sensible weather features a milder night with still some
temperature differences from ridge to valleys given the mostly
clear skies and light winds. This will also result in areas of fog
in the valleys and near bodies of water - locally dense similar to
last night. Sunday will be even warmer than today with higher
humidity leading to heat indices likely breeching 100 degrees for
many towns and particularly the Bluegrass region under plenty of
sunshine and light southwest winds. That night will be similarly
mild compared to our upcoming one with again some river valley fog
developing. After the heat of Sunday there is a potential need
for heat related headlines - primarily on account of the duration
of the heat wave. For now, will continue the SPS addressing these
concerns.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
temperatures each night per our more typical terrain differences
under high pressure - also lowered dewpoints a tad each afternoon.
PoPs and Wx were still quiet in the NBM and kept that way through
the short term portion of the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
Model data suggests a 599 dm 500 mb high pressure centered over the
Maryland/ N. Virginia area, with the overall reach of the associated
ridge, or heat dome extending across much of the east coast, west
through the Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
Through much of next week anomalous heat combining with a moisture
rich airmass will create several consecutive days of heat indices
around or above 100 degrees for portions of the area from Monday to
Friday. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the 70s for most
locations from Monday night through Thursday night, and this lack of
nighttime heat relief will further increase the risk of heat impacts.
Looking at the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) A strong signal
from Tuesday through Thursday remains present, with portions of
Eastern Kentucky exceeding the 90th percentile for "normal"
temperatures for this time of year. This further highlights the
anomalous nature of this heat for this time of year across the area.
Current forecasts for the city of Jackson have 94 for a high next
Tuesday, this contends with the record high of 92 set back in 1988,
another year with a hot summer. At night, poor recovery in
temperatures will further put strain on those without means to cool
off. Lows in the lower 70s for Jackson through Thursday may also set
records for the highest low temperatures recorded at night. NBM dew
points generally has the area remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s
through this stretch.
Some moisture will work its way around the bottom left side of the
high pressure, into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley. While
some solutions maintain a low probability (10-15% chance) of showers
mainly along and south of the KY-80/Hal Roger Parkway. Confidence
remains low enough for now to not deviate from previous shifts, and
keep the mentioning of showers out of the forecast for now. Past
Monday, the next chances for showers or thunderstorms look to be
Thursday afternoon and again Friday and Saturday.
With the anticipated heat this upcoming week, its now a good time to
check that your air conditioning and fans are in good working order.
Know the signs of heat illness and practice heat safety by staying
hydrated. Check in on people without air conditioning, as well as
any elderly relatives and neighbors. Never leave children or animals
in an unattended vehicle, as car interiors can reach deadly
temperatures in a matter of minutes.
Visit https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat for more heat safety tips
and resources.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VFR conditions should prevail through the period under high
pressure at the sfc and a building ridge aloft. Again there will
be some radiation fog in the valleys but expect it to remain more
confined that prior nights and probably not cause any notable
impacts at the TAF sites. The fog will lift and dissipate after
sunrise Sunday morning. Winds will generally be variable to
southwesterly under 5 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 21, 7:35 PM EDT---------------
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