IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 3:30 AM EDT265
FXUS63 KIWX 100730
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
330 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry today, highs in the 70s
- Dry and much warmer Wednesday, highs in the 80s
- Warm Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms,
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
An anomalously and seasonally deep upper level low and associated
trof extended from James Bay (near the south end of Hudson Bay) into
the Upper Great Lakes region. This system that had been helping to
keep a cool and wet pattern over forecast area was now lifting
northeast out of the region. Dry weather will prevail today with
warming temperatures Wednesday as very warm air spreads east into
the forecast area from the Central Plains. 850 mb GFS forecast
temperatures show the east edge of a very warm airmass (+17C)
reaching the forecast area. When these warm temperatures are
warmed dry adiabatically Wednesday, they should render highs in
the upper 80s. This warm air intrusion will mark a transition
to a more summer type of pattern to follow with highs mostly in
the 80s and late afternoon/early evening scattered showers and
storms. Some remaining energy of an upper low and upper trof
will eject out of the Southern Plains and reach the forecast
area late this week. This system will enhance chances for showers
and storms Friday night and Saturday, but severe weather is not
expected.
As for the smoke, it seems the HRRR has been overdoing the smoke
in our area. Observations from our county yesterday and
overnight tonight here at the NWS office indicate only the
slightest presence of elevated smoke.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
A quiet aviation weather period in store with VFR conditions
expected to persist. Low level dry air advection has built
across northern Indiana this evening in wake of secondary cold
frontal boundary. Decoupling will lead to continued light west-
southwest winds through the remainder of the overnight hours.
With sfc high pressure centered across Missouri today, a modest
westerly gradient will be maintained across northern Indiana
that should support west winds of 10-15G20KT during peak daytime
mixing. Winds should slacken to 5 knots or less early this
evening with loss of daytime mixing. While moisture is limited,
proximity of mid level cold pool across the southern Great Lakes
should support VFR flat cu development today.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 3:30 AM EDT---------------
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