JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 7:11 AM EDT905
FXUS63 KJKL 131111
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
711 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures will be above normal today.
- Unsettled weather returns to end the week - continuing through
the first half of next week, with showers and thunderstorms
likely each day.
- Some strong storms are possible today into the weekend with
strong wind gusts, in addition to the potential for excessive
rainfall producing isolated instances of high water or flash
flooding.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 711 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
Modified PoPs for today into tonight using a blend of the NBM,
HREF, and CONShort models. Updated temperatures based on most
recent observations. Otherwise, there were no changes to the
forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
A cut-off stacked low over the middle of the country will slowly
move east to the Ohio River Valley by Saturday evening. Southwest
flow ahead of this feature will continue advecting moisture into
the region, and with that moisture will come sufficient
instability to support afternoon and evening convection across the
region each afternoon and evening with any appreciable surface
heating. With PWs beginning to approach 2 inches by late this
afternoon and then persisting through Saturday, there will be a
risk for torrential rainfall producing excessive rainfall and
isolated instances of high water and/or flash flooding with the
heavier storms.
With increasing moisture bringing an increase in cloud cover and
afternoon convection, high temperatures will begin trending slightly
downward, with highs in the mid to upper 80s today but in the lower
to mid 80s Saturday. Lows tonight will generally fall into the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 316 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
Weakening stacked low will gradually dissipate over the Upper
Ohio River Valley Monday after moving across eastern Kentucky
Sunday and Sunday night. However, this will be followed almost
immediately by another warm front from the southwest later Monday
that will bring a renewed push of moisture into the region from
the southwest that then persists through mid-week. Thus, the
forecast will not change much from Sunday through the coming week
until after Thursday, when models suggest the mid-latitude jet
stream will dip south and push a trough and surface cold front
across the region later Thursday. Projecting this scenario out in
time would suggest that Days 8 to 10 period may see a drying
trend after a week of likely shower and thunderstorms each day.
Using the NBM as the basis for the temperature forecast for the long-
term, which seems reasonable, high temperatures bottom out in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday with categorical shower and
thunderstorm probabilities, then gradually warm each day through
the 80s as the week progresses with likely shower and thunderstorm
probabilities persisting through Thursday. Nighttime lows in the
60s to near 70 degrees are expected, with potentially locally
dense valley fog developing each morning with any amount of
partial clearing.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VFR conditions still dominate across the area. Winds are
currently calm to light and variable and will remain so through
the rest of the night. JKL, SME, and LOZ could see some fog bring
MVFR visibilities tonight as it forms in the valleys and expands
in the pre-dawn hours. By 13Z or so, that fog will lift and
dissipate, with VFR conditions returning. Scattered showers and
storms then return to the area and continue to be a threat
through the remainder of the TAF period. These would bring gusty
winds and lower visibility should they impact any TAF sites,
warranting a lengthy PROB30 mention. Outside of storms, winds are
expected to remain fairly light, generally around 5 kts, or less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAS/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 13, 7:11 AM EDT---------------
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