ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 3:16 PM EDT768
FXUS61 KILN 111916
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
316 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains intact through Thursday, keeping the forecast
dry. Temperatures will trend slightly above normal through the end
of the work week, but will decrease over the weekend back to near
normal as the pattern becomes more active with episodic showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Vertically integrated smoke concentrations have slightly decreased
for today. While skies still remain hazy, there are more pockets of
blue sky appearing across the Ohio Valley. Smoke continues to remain
aloft and has little to no impact on surface temps or air quality.
Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight will aid in river valley
fog development. With the higher humidity levels, overnight lows will
be more mild as most of our CWA remains above the 60 degree mark.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure remains in control throughout the day on
Thursday, but we will be monitoring a quasi-stationary boundary that
will be draped W-E near the Great Lakes region. Any precip will
mainly be focused along and north of the boundary, so continue to
keep the forecast dry through Thursday night.
In addition to smoke aloft, cirrus clouds will also traverse the
region on Thursday, providing filtered sunshine. Surface highs trend
back above seasonal normals in the middle to upper 80s.
Thicker plume of mid level clouds move in Thursday night. The
increased cloud coverage will limit outgoing longwave radiation and
lead to warmer overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak mid and upper level low will move out of the southern Plains
on Friday and slowly weaken as it moves across the Ohio valley
through the weekend. Southwest flow ahead of this will lead to
increasing moisture and a developing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and on through the weekend. There
will likely be some diurnal enhancement to the pcpn chances during
the afternoon and early evening as we destabilize slightly through
the daytime periods. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the mid 80s
with highs on Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Progressive zonal flow will then prevail into mid next week. Several
embedded weak mid level disturbances will lead to additional chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term
period. Daytime highs will be mostly in the low to mid 80s Monday
through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through the taf period with the exception of
KLUK as more river valley fog develops tonight.
SCT250 deck is forecast given the hazy skies from the wildfire smoke.
Not anticipating a cu field to develop given the lack of moisture.
OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible Friday night through Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Air Quality Alert from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ046-055-
056-065.
KY...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for INZ050-058-
059-066.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ073-075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Clark
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 11, 3:16 PM EDT---------------
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