IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 6:35 PM EDT303
FXUS63 KIND 082235
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
635 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and some thunderstorms return tonight. An isolated strong
storm is possible west this evening
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon
- Dry with warming trend mid-week
- Precipitation chances return late week into the weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Low pressure departing to our east has allowed rain showers to
gradually end and skies to begin the clearing process. Most
locations are still mostly cloudy or even overcast, but satellite
reveals a more scattered appearance to the cloud deck from
Indianapolis westward. Continued slow clearing is expected for the
rest of today, with a late warming trend compared to typical diurnal
temperature curves. Temperatures should reach into the mid to upper
70s, especially west, by late this afternoon.
Satellite and surface observations also reveal a cold front across
northern Illinois, and this front is moving southeastward towards
Indiana. Despite northwesterly flow ahead of the front (due to the
departing low), not much of an air mass change is noted. A rather
moist atmosphere is anticipated to remain in place as the front
arrives and briefly causes winds to turn southwesterly immediately
ahead of it.
Forcing along the front should allow for scattered showers and
storms. CAPE profiles are thin and tall, and shear is modest at just
over 30 knots characterized by relatively straight hodographs. Shear
vectors start out oblique to the initiating boundary but become more
parallel with time. As such, a more celluar/semi-discrete mode may
be realized across Illinois today before transitioning to multicell
clusters or a line by the time it reaches Indiana. Given the narrow
CAPE profile, robust updrafts are not expected and severe weather is
not anticipated...though an isolated strong wind gust to around 40kt
is not out of the question, especially further west.
A secondary cold front looks to arrive on Monday, which is discussed
below in the long term section.
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Monday will be a tale of two different boundary passages neither of
which will be particularly organized. The first boundary (talked
about in the short term) will move through very slowly with upper
level support lagging behind as the parent low occludes. The left
over airmass on Monday will become rather dry with winds shifting
towards the SW, and the PBL becoming deeply mixed. HREF is honing in
on a broad area of very steep low level lapse rates (9-10 C/km), but
with minimal low level forcing and moisture. Still, as a cold front
arrives Monday afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms could
develop if lifted parcels are able to exceed LCL heights (~6kft).
Greatest coverage of showers and storms will likely remain over far
northern central Indiana, but an isolated thunderstorm is possible
as far south as Indianapolis. The vast majority of these cells
should be mundane, but there is a fairly robust mid to upper level
jet and strong DCAPE, of which could produce some higher winds gusts
in any sustained updraft.
After this frontal passage, shortwave ridging will move into central
Indiana, leading to a dry period Monday night through Wednesday next
week. Temperatures will initially be seasonal on Tuesday, but will
likely increase back into the mid 80s by Wednesday with the ridge
axis nearing and an increase in WAA. Later in the week, combating
dynamics will likely lead to an unorganized upper level pattern,
with a tendency towards broad upper level ridging, but with a
developing mid level low. The current expectation is for this to
lead to hot, humid weather, but with temperatures subdued slightly
due to increases in cloud cover and precipitation. There is still
high uncertainty on any rain timing, but the general pattern should
support periods of rain Thursday through the weekend. Expect highs
to be above seasonal averages, likely in the low to mid 80s with
elevated dew points.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 634 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
Impacts:
- VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period.
- Showers and thunderstorms possible overnight with MVFR or lower
conditions at times
- Returning to VFR after sunrise on Monday
Discussion:
VFR conditions across the area were due to weak ridge of high
pressure in place across Central Indiana. A frontal boundary to the
west was generating showers and thunderstorms over IL and MO. HRRR
propagates these storms across the TAF sites mainly during the
overnight hours. Thus expect brief MVFR conditions as they pass and
have used TEMPO groups to account for this.
HRRR suggests the storms will exit by 12Z-13Z, leading a return to
VFR conditions. Forecast soundings trend toward a dry column with
subsidence on Monday. Thus a return to unlimited cigs as high
pressure builds from the northwest is expected.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 6:35 PM EDT---------------
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