JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 6:15 AM EDT765
FXUS63 KJKL 091015
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
615 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon into the
evening, with the potential for damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rainfall.
- High temperatures will be near or a little below normal through
midweek, with warmer readings arriving for late week.
- Humid conditions are expected with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 630 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
A large and deep upper low over the Upper Mississippi River
Valley early this morning digs into the Upper Great Lakes Region
this afternoon before lifting northeast into southeastern Canada
Tuesday. This system will push a cold front across Mid-Ohio Valley
Region this afternoon and evening.
A southwesterly mid-level jet streak will be slowly weakening as a
cold front moves east across the Ohio River Valley this afternoon
and evening. However, it will be impinging over a warm sector
characterized by surface temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
with dew points in the lower to mid 60s, yielding CAPE values in the
1000-2000 J/kg range, with isolated higher pockets. Will thus expect
a few severe storms to be possible along and ahead of the cold
front, with SPC continuing a Slight Risk for almost all of eastern
Kentucky for today.
Precipitation ends and skies clear quickly behind the cold front
passage late this evening into the overnight, which will most likely
result in widespread valley fog formation, especially where rain
occurs.
Another shortwave moves across the area Tuesday and will bring a low
potential for a few post-frontal rain showers under the upper trough
axis over the area. Removed any mention of thunder from the forecast
at this time as sufficient instability to support such appears
extremely limited.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 630 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
Mostly dry weather is expected for the mid-week period as weak upper
ridging will be over or just upstream of the region, with dry
mid-levels and relatively dry lower levels. However, by Friday
warm advection increases with dew points rising from the mid to
upper 50s the first half of Thursday to mid 60s Friday to upper
60s to mid 70s for the weekend ahead of a slow-moving upper
system over the middle of the country. Thus, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be on the increase to end the week and
heading into the weekend, with widespread shower and thunderstorms
indicated by Sunday afternoon as this is when the best agreement
exists for upper trough axis crossing the Ohio River Valley. Any
potential severe weather or excessive rainfall risk late week
through the weekend should become clearer as the week progresses.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2025
After the BR/FG dissipates, VFR conditions will return areawide.
This lasts until mid-to-late afternoon, at which point showers
and thunderstorms should begin to enter the forecast area from the
northwest with sub-VFR conditions, impacting any one site for
several hours. Shower/thunderstorm activity should exit east past
06z, with likely VFR conditions developing aside from valley fog
formation in southeastern and far eastern Kentucky.
Additional cloud cover will work in from the NW late in the
period as a weak front drifts through the region toward 12z
Tuesday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC/ILN
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 6:15 AM EDT---------------
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