ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 1:08 AM EDT979
FXUS61 KILN 090508
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
108 AM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger frontal system will push through the region on Monday,
providing a renewed chance for showers and storms. Seasonably warm
and humid conditions will prevail until some drier air returns in the
wake of the front by Tuesday. Drier conditions should persist
through Thursday before a seasonably warm and humid airmass returns
late in the week, bringing additional chances for showers and storms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAMs do depict the current diminishing of convection as it heads
across Indiana, so continuing previous slight delay of precip onset.
The initial few hours of the 00Z CAMs do still depict an enhanced LL
jet developing between 10-12z, so still expecting some increase in
coverage during the overnight hours as the boundary approaches SE
Indiana. Backed off of the timing still a little more, along with the
precip probability.
Overnight low temperatures still look good, generally with lower 60s
under increasing clouds and increase SW flow. Cool spot will be in
the east, closer to 60 where clearing will linger a little longer.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Stacked deep low pressure which will track into the Great Lakes
Monday. A low level southerly jet which increases to 35 to 40 kts
will allow moisture/clouds and forcing to increase. A narrow band of
showers with embedded thunderstorms to move into the western
counties around sunrise and move east thru the area thru the aftn.
The best chance for some diurnally-driven destabilization on Monday
looks to be east of the I-71 corridor. This instability combined with
strengthening mid level flow may lead to stronger updrafts. Strong to
severe storms will be possible with damaging winds being the main
threat Monday afternoon across ILN/s eastern/southeastern counties.
The main axis of precipitation will shift east with chances
decreasing from west to east by late afternoon. A few additional
showers will be possible across west central Ohio late in the day
into the evening as anther shortwave rotates around the mid level
low and a secondary front moves into the area. High pressure begins
to nose into the area Monday night with clouds decreasing overnight.
Highs on Monday will influenced by clouds and pcpn moving through
the area, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid to
upper 70s.
Lows drop off into the mid to upper 50s Monday night under clearing skies
and light winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from west on Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Westerly flow will allow temperatures to remain below
average with forecast highs in the 70s. .
The center of the surface high shifts east of the region on
Wednesday. Southerly winds develop west of the high leading to
increasing temperatures and humidity for the second half of the
week. Highs reach 80 on Wednesday and the middle 80s Thursday and
Friday. Rain chances increase on Friday through the weekend due to
increasing instability over the area and a weak boundary working in
from the north.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry conditions will prevail through the first part of the TAF period
before widespread SHRA, with ISO embedded TSRA, once again
overspreads the region from the WSW in the several hours around
daybreak. This activity will impact KDAY earliest before spreading to
the E rather quickly between 12z-15z. Steady SHRA will promote a
moistening of the BL, allowing for CIGs to lower from VFR to MVFR by
late morning into early afternoon. Some MVFR VSBYs are also expected
during the heavier pockets of pcpn. The back edge of the steady SHRA
shield will shift E by 21z, but there are some indications for ISO
activity to develop /behind/ the primary band between about 19z-22z,
so have kept the SHRA potential going in the fcst a bit longer to
account for this potential.
A rapid clearing is expected area-wide by/past 21z-22z, with skies
going mostly clear by early evening. This being said, clouds will be
on the increase once again very late in the period as the front
approaches from the NW. With this, there is also a signal for a very
narrow/thin line of SHRA along the boundary to move in from the NW
leading up to 06z Tuesday, so have included a PROB30 at KDAY for now
to account for this potential, too.
Light SW wind around 5kts is expected through daybreak. This,
combined with mainly clear skies and still plenty of near-ground
moisture, will allow for BR and VSBYs reductions at KLUK before the
clouds arrive around sunrise. WSW winds will increase to 10-12kts,
with gusts 15-20kts, between 18z and 00z before subsiding again
by/past sunset.
OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible again Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR/AR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 1:08 AM EDT---------------
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