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376 FXUS64 KLIX 052019AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA319 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025Another day, another...warm...muggy...day with isolated storms.Again storms have had a little more difficulty developing and likely due to the lack of any real moisture surge. PWs around 1.5-1.6 is just not enough when there isn't anything else to help pop off storms and likely increasing hghts and mid lvl temps. As for tomorrow and into the weekend not feeling real good aboutconvection Friday and Saturday and with that we can expectedrather warm and humid conditions. The ridge will continue toexpand into the area tonight and tomorrow while slightly drier airin the northwestern Gulf will also drift into the area. Thisshould just lead to isolated storms at best tomorrow afternoon,mainly associated with the seabreeze. Highs could actually climbinto the mid 90s in a few locations. Saturday looks like it willbe quite similar to Friday but there could be a few storms thattry to move in out of the northwest as the ridge will begin tobreak down on the northeastern side. This is in response to thepattern amplifying and a trough digging across the Plains whichwill impact the forecast far more Sunday and well into the newwork week. /CAB/&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday night)Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025As for the extended portion of the forecast, medium range modelsare in fairly good agreement heading into next week but there aresome slight differences that could mean a big difference fromgetting hammered with storms with being just on the outside.Overall all do suggest an increase in rain chances with a definitechange in the pattern from what we see right now. By Sunday the ridge will have been suppressed to the southwestbecoming centered over Mexico and the northern and especiallynortheastern quadrant of it will have eroded allowing northwestflow to return. Northwest flow is always tricky and how fast itdevelops Sunday will determine if we can get scattered tonumerous storms to develop and if they do will likely be late inthe day. The more interesting and unknown is going into next week.The models have indicated for days another more potent s/wembedded in the flow coming down into the Lower MS ValleyMonday/Monday night. At the same time a weak boundary could dipdown into the Gulf coast states stretching from near the TX/OK panhandles to the central Gulf coast. This would provide a corridor for storms to ride northwest to southeast and these storms would have the potential to become strong to severe. If that does drop down far enough south we could see multiple roundsof storms or even a few MCS's Monday into Wednesday. If that doesn't quite slides far enough south we could be right on the fringe of that activity. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025VFR conditions will continue unless one of the isolated stormsmoves over a terminal. Again the most likely locations that couldhappen will be right around the coastal terminals, MCB and BTR areless likely to see that impact. /CAB/&&.MARINE...Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025High pressure will remain in control over the area and will becentered over the eastern Gulf. This will maintain the lightgenerally southerly and south-southwest winds into the weekend.Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with thegreatest risk for storms east of the MS delta. Obviously withthese storms strong winds and higher seas are expected along witha few waterspouts. /CAB/&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 72 92 72 93 / 10 10 0 20 BTR 74 94 75 94 / 10 20 0 30 ASD 74 92 75 93 / 0 20 0 30 MSY 77 93 77 93 / 0 30 0 40 GPT 75 90 76 91 / 10 20 0 30 PQL 73 90 75 91 / 10 20 0 20 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...CABMARINE...CAB
