CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 9:26 AM EDT446
FXUS61 KCLE 081326
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
926 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts northeast across the area today into tonight
as weak low pressure tracks through the upper Ohio Valley. A
cold front moves east across the area on Monday, with troughing
lingering over the area into Tuesday. High pressure builds into
the Ohio Valley for Wednesday and Thursday, before a frontal
boundary sags in from the north to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM Update...
Showers are lifting into the eastern half of the area and the
more stratiform rain should exit to the east at some point this
afternoon. Still can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder, best
chance during peak heating this afternoon. No changes needed
with this update
Previous Discussion...
A weak shortwave and associated surface reflection will work
east-northeast across the Upper Ohio Valley today, pushing a
warm front into the local area from the southwest. The shortwave
and surface reflection will be gradually shearing out and
weakening as they progress across our area through this
afternoon, though will still provide enough forcing for
increased rain chances today. Not an all day soaker, but most of
the area will see some rain at some point today.
The greatest rain potential will be along a zone of low to mid-
level moisture convergence just ahead of the shortwave and just
north/northeast of the lifting warm front. This will gradually
progress east across the area through this afternoon. Confidence
in a wetting/measurable rain is highest along that zone of
greater forcing early this morning in our southwestern counties
towards central OH (roughly Bowling Green to Mansfield points
south), and then later this morning into this afternoon across
our southeastern counties (roughly east of a Cleveland to
Mansfield to Mt Gilead line in Northeast OH and into interior
Northwest PA). We should see rain coverage decrease from west to
east as the shortwave and relatively greater forcing work east
and gradually exit through this afternoon, though modest daytime
heating of a moist airmass should allow weak instability and a
few slow-moving pop-up convective showers or storms to re-
develop farther west through the early evening. Given this, have
the highest POPs timed out with the greatest forcing from west
to east across the area but hang on to lower POPs through early
this evening farther west. We should all see a lull in rain
chances and even some clearing skies for a time this evening and
tonight, though showers may begin moving into Northwest OH pre-
dawn Monday along an approaching cold front. Weak flow and
skinny instability profiles support slow-moving cells with
efficient rain-rates where any convective elements are realized
today. Am not seeing much signal for organized convection or
heavy rain potential today so the overall concern for flash
flooding is pretty low.
Highs today will generally reach the low to mid 70s but with
increasing moisture as dew points climb into the 60s. Lows
tonight will be on either side of 60 degrees. With relatively
light winds and a humid airmass tonight, some patchy fog may
develop where sufficient clearing occurs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Another day of unsettled weather is expected to start the week
as a cold front pushes east across the area. Much of the area
will likely see showers/thunderstorms as the cold front crosses
through the day, with increasing confidence in thunderstorms and
some potential for severe weather/locally heavy rain farther
east across the area where the frontal timing will be better
aligned with peak afternoon heating.
The cold front is expected to push across Northwest OH Monday
morning, cross the Cleveland/Akron area around or just after
midday, and exit to the east during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large scale forcing will be increasing through the day
as a potent vort max dives into the base of the longwave upper
trough pushing into the Great Lakes, allowing the whole trough
to amplify and take on a more negative tilt Monday afternoon as
the right-entrance quadrant of a seasonally strong (~120kt)
upper jet streak moves over the southern Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley. Showers/perhaps a bit of thunder will likely be ongoing
along the front across Northwest OH Monday morning. As forcing
increases and daytime heating leads to modest destabilization
ahead of the front, coverage of rain and storms should increase
into the afternoon as the front works east across the area.
Given this, have the highest POPs (up to 90-100%) and QPF (up to
0.50-1.00") from eastern OH into Northwest PA for Monday. Shower
and storm chances will exit east Monday evening with the front.
A secondary trough will push into Northwest OH Monday evening,
possibly with a few showers/storms before that activity
dissipates with the loss of daytime heating.
Weak mid-level lapse rates, along with a limited window of
sunshine to enhance daytime heating, will put a lid of sorts on
how unstable we can get on Monday. Still, most models depict
enough heating from eastern OH into western PA for 500-1000 J/KG
of MLCAPE to develop by mid-afternoon. This is enough
instability, especially in the presence of decent forcing and
shear (deep-layer bulk shear of 40-50kt with 0-3km bulk shear of
30-40kt), for a risk of organized and potentially severe
convection. A number of 0z hi-res models (such as the HRRR, 3km
NAM, and RRFS) depict a few initial supercells gradually
evolving into a larger QLCS with embedded small surges/bows from
eastern OH into northwestern PA Monday afternoon and early
evening. Despite the marginal thermodynamics, this type of
evolution is supported by the forcing and shear, and has
prompted an upgrade to a Slight Risk (risk level 2/5) for severe
weather from the SPC east of roughly an Ashtabula to Akron to
Wooster to Mt Vernon line. Damaging winds would be the primary
concern, with lower potential for isolated large hail and
perhaps a tornado or two. The deep-layer flow will be generally
parallel to the front, which could encourage some training
convection, with skinny instability profiles suggesting
efficient rain-rates as well. Some hi-res models suggest
localized rain amounts of over 2" could occur with training
convection, which could lead to isolated flash flooding. The WPC
has outlined most of Northeast OH and Northwest PA in a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall for Monday in response.
This seems like a lower-end slight risk for excessive rainfall,
but there's enough signal for some training to keep it in mind.
The main drawback/uncertainty is that a slightly faster front,
or slightly less heating in front of it, would limit the severe
and heavy rain threat in our area and confine it to our
southeast on Monday. Will need to closely monitor the forecast
progression of the front and amount of heating ahead of it in
future updates/outlooks to see if any adjustments are needed.
Highs on Monday will mainly be in the low to mid 70s, perhaps a
bit warmer towards Toledo and Youngstown. Lows Monday night are
expected to range from the mid 50s to near 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term portion of the forecast starts on Tuesday with
upper troughing over the Great Lakes, but with this troughing
beginning to weaken and shift towards New England. Heights rise
over the eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday as that trough
lifts out. Towards Friday and Saturday the local area is
expected to be on the fringe of stronger west-northwest flow
aloft to our north, with ridging persisting over the
Southeast/Mid Atlantic and with a weak shortwave or closed low
of sorts drifting out of the Plains and towards the Ohio Valley.
A few showers/storms may pop-up Tuesday afternoon beneath cooler
air aloft, though most should stay dry. Dry weather is expected
for Wednesday. Low rain chances begin returning to the forecast
for Thursday and Friday, as the active west-northwest flow just
to our north will push a cold front south towards the local
area as ridging to our south/southeast encourages a return to
warmth and some humidity. Rain chances increase into the weekend
due to continued moisture return, the nearby frontal boundary,
and potential for a weak disturbance to move into the region
from the west. Temperatures will trend from a bit below normal
on Tuesday to a bit above normal for Wednesday and Thursday.
Uncertainty increases for Friday and Saturday, though high
temperatures are currently forecast to trend slightly cooler due
to increased potential for some rain those days.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Rain continues to spread northeastward across the area this
morning and into the early afternoon. Should largely be VFR
this morning outside a few heavier showers producing brief
visibility in the 3-5 SM range. Periods of MVFR ceilings will
likely develop before clouds scatter out this evening into
tonight few a few more isolated showers possibly redeveloping
this evening. There are some indications from model guidance
that clouds could hang on late tonight, and if they do, then IFR
ceilings may be possible. This is most likely at KYNG, but is
also possible at KCAK, KCLE, and KERI.
A line of showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west
early Monday morning and move east across the region through the
day Monday. There is good confidence that MVFR from visibilities
and ceilings is expected with these showers, with brief IFR
visibilities possible with heavier showers. The probability for
lightning is low Monday morning.
Light winds of 7 knots or less expected, generally out of the
east and southeast today, becoming south and southwest late
tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with a line of showers and
thunderstorms that is expected to move east across the area on
Monday. Non-VFR could linger into Monday night with ceilings.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure moves eastward just south of Lake Erie today before
departing to the east this evening. Flow will generally be out of
the east before it veers to out of the south and then southwest
tonight ahead of a cold front that approaches from the west. There
may be a bit of wavering between south and west Monday night through
Tuesday night as a few weak cold front move across the area before
settling back to primarily southwest thereafter as high pressure
builds in to the south. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are
generally expected to be 15 knots or less. There may be brief
periods of southwest winds of around 20 knots Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...15/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 8, 9:26 AM EDT---------------
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